Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh (the Rajput) and retired CIA Officer Glenn Carle (the WASP) discuss whether Europe, led by Germany and France, can regain its former greatness. Together, they trace the continent’s rise, decline and uncertain future. Their conversation blends politics, economics, philosophy, history and geopolitics, reminding listeners that the European story is as much about ideas and values as about armies or alliances.

The rise of Europe

Atul and Glenn note that for five centuries, Europe was the unrivaled center of global progress — the proverbial “cock of the walk.” The Renaissance and Reformation created a civilization of reason, doubt and individualism, launching an age of discovery and dynamism. From Portuguese Prince Henry the Navigator sending voyages to explore sea routes, to Polish astronomer Nicolaus Copernicus’s conception of a new heliocentric universe, Dutch anatomist Andreas Vesalius’s dissections leading to the discovery of a new body, Italian artist Leonardo da Vinci’s personification of a new Renaissance man and German theologian Martin Luther’s new Christianity, Europe redefined humanity and remade the world.

Like India, China and Egypt earlier, Europe achieved greatness that included both spectacular achievements and much suffering. Europe gave birth to individualism, inquiry and innovation, leading to the Industrial Revolution and a modern scientific worldview.

European decline

The great changes in Europe also unleashed nationalism and conflict. Martin Luther’s 95 theses in 1517 led to the Thirty Years’ War (1618–48) that caused the death of 25–40% of the population of the areas that now comprise modern-day Germany. The French Revolution led to the Napoleonic Wars. In the 20th century, Europe self-destructed thanks to the “tragedy of World War I” and the “suicide of World War II”.

By 1945, the US produced half of global output and emerged as the global top dog. NATO’s design — to keep “the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down” — locked Europe in general, and Germany in particular, into subservience and dependency. Decolonization and the Soviet shadow eroded Europe’s confidence, even as prosperity rose under the new European welfare states. Living standards for the people rose higher than ever before, even as Europe shrank on the global stage. This is a tragedy of success: The same civilization that had given the world humanism and science became exhausted by its own wars and moral contradictions.

Restoration through union

Europe began rebuilding through integration. The European Coal and Steel Community of 1951 evolved into the European Economic Community, the customs union and later the Maastricht Treaty, uniting former enemies in a shared economic and later political project. French visionaries Jean Monnet and Jacques Delors imagined a new European entity that would achieve prosperity through cooperation. The single market, the euro and post-1991 enlargement were part of this grand European project. Without integration, you would not have the prosperity you see in Europe today. The European experiment, though bureaucratic and incomplete, revived Europe’s material strength and moral confidence.

Despite the great benefits of the EU, there are downsides too. The EU remains constrained by the requirement for unanimity, overregulation and a “democratic deficit” that saps vitality. Italian economist Mario Draghi’s 2024 report on competitiveness diagnoses Europe’s deep malaise: European economies have struggled to innovate, create jobs and compete with both the US and China. Europe’s structure is too bureaucratic to act decisively on economics, industry, defense or migration.

In a nutshell, economic and political competence has not been matched by strategic capacity, leaving the continent vulnerable to shocks from Russia, China and an increasingly unreliable US. The very success of the welfare state has bred complacency, creating a paradox where prosperity dulls ambition and consensus replaces vision. Today, Europe suffers from the curse of affluence.

Can Germany and France make Europe great again?

Two competing models define Europe’s future. France’s vision seeks “strategic autonomy,” a federal Europe with its own military and industrial backbone. Meanwhile, Germany’s approach favors a confederation of sovereign states and continued reliance on Washington. Both nations, however, face internal strains: In Germany, over 20% of residents are foreign-born, and this has led to the growing popularity of the far-right Alternative for Germany, which is now polling higher than the ruling coalition.

Germany’s now diverse society lacks the cohesion of yore. For example, the Turkish immigrant population often sympathizes with those in Gaza over those in Ukraine. No less than two-thirds of this population also votes for the Islamist Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. France has similar problems when it comes to immigrants and worse issues when it comes to politics. The Fifth Republic is struggling to pass a budget even as prime ministers come and go. Germany and France now struggle to maintain internal cohesion, a weakness mirrored across Europe.

With a strong memory of Nazi rule, Germans are nervous about the zeitgeist in the US. President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have addressed generals, raising alarm not only in the US but also in Germany. Fears of a deal between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have spooked Berlin, reminding Germans of their vulnerability. Such a deal would leave the Germans high and dry, both politically and economically. Note that the Germans gave up on cheap Russian gas because of American pressure. As the transatlantic bond frays, Europe will either learn to stand alone or risk marginalization in a world defined by American retrenchment and Chinese power.

Europe divided, can it stay united?

Demography and debt compound all the above tensions in Europe. An aging, indebted continent faces a sovereign debt crisis. Immigration is inflaming passions across the continent as well. On the one hand, the far-right is on the rise. On the other hand, many minorities are turning to radical or political Islam. This loss of internal cohesion is dangerous not only for democracy but for the future of European societies.

When large numbers of migrants come to any society, it is difficult to absorb them without friction. That has been the lesson of history. In the case of Europe, highly religious immigrants struggle for assimilation in a secular Westphalian society. They do not come from cultures with the same historic separation between church and state. This weakens nationalism that has defined Europe since 1648. It is clear that immigration is Europe’s moral and political crucible — the test of whether Enlightenment values can survive contact with 21st-century realities.

There is also the issue of inequality. To be fair, this issue is not as significant in Europe as in the US. Yet it is also straining a sense of cohesion in a continent that evolved to have a fair degree of social equality after World War II.

Yet one can be cautiously optimistic in the long run. History tells us that only crisis brings renewal. From the Reformation to the world wars, upheaval has forced transformation in Europe. Today’s dangers — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a possible US retreat and China’s rise — may again provoke change. French economist Thomas Piketty posits that great crises like world wars, depressions and revolutions can produce renewal. A new European order might emerge through shared defense, decisive governance and economic reforms, or it could collapse into paralysis. If Europe fails to act, it risks becoming a museum of its past rather than a maker of the future.

[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/podcast are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.