The US Republican Party is holding primary elections to select its nominee for the November 2024 presidential election. Former US President Donald Trump is head and shoulders above every other candidate in popularity, and most of his rivals have already conceded the race. One other prominent Republican, however, remains in the race: Nikki Haley. She’s branded herself as a spokeswoman for traditional conservatism and a saner alternative to Trump’s populism.

Haley served as governor of South Carolina and as the US Ambassador to the United Nations. She presents a unique profile within the Republican Party. Her tenure at the UN showcased her as a tough, outspoken diplomat, while her governorship highlighted a pragmatic approach to governance.

Despite these credentials, Haley’s candidacy raises questions about her ability to consolidate the Republican base, which is staunchly loyal to Trump. Critics argue that her positioning as a more traditional conservative may not resonate with the populist wing of the party. Additionally, she harshly criticized Trump for his role in the January 6, 2021, riot on Capitol Hill that sought to overturn the result of the 2020 election. Haley later walked these comments back, giving the impression that she lacks steadfastness, which may have diminished her appeal.

Haley’s challenge lies in striking a delicate balance between the traditional conservative wing of the party and the populist wave that still engulfs the GOP. The viability of Haley’s candidacy will depend on her ability to close this gap in a field where Trump’s enduring presence still dominates.

The enigma of a second Trump term

Trump is currently undergoing a range of civil and criminal cases, ranging from business fraud to his alleged role in the Capitol riot. Despite the legal storms, Trump’s base has demonstrated remarkable resilience and loyalty. This unwavering support underscores the deep-seated cultural and political divides within the US. However, the question of sustainability looms large. Will these legal challenges eventually erode Trump’s base or impact his eligibility for office?

The enduring popularity of Trump within the party raises questions about the true influence of legal troubles on his political standing. While investigations may raise doubts, Trump’s ability to maintain a loyal following suggests that, for now, his legal woes haven’t significantly dented his political fortress. However, the long-term impact remains uncertain, making the upcoming election a critical juncture for Trump’s political future.

Observers often discuss the Republican primary as if Trump’s nomination were a foregone conclusion. His enduring popularity and the absence of a strong, unifying challenger contribute to this perception. However, the certainty surrounding Trump’s dominance may be premature. The political landscape is dynamic, and unexpected candidates could emerge, challenging the assumed trajectory of the Republican primary.

Speculation about Trump’s potential running mate adds an additional layer of complexity. Analysts mention figures like Senator Tim Scott, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The selection process will not only signal Trump’s priorities but also introduce dynamics that may shape the general election in unexpected ways.

What might the future look like?

Predictions about a second Trump presidency are fraught with concerns about the direction he may take the country. His first term was characterized by unconventional governance, and a potential second term could see an emboldened Trump pushing his agenda without the constraints of re-election. This prospect raises questions about the potential impact on domestic and foreign policy.

The protectionist policies of Trump’s first presidency have already left a significant imprint on the global economic order. Biden’s reaction to these policies becomes a crucial point of contention. Critics argue that Biden has failed to articulate a clear alternative that addresses the shortcomings of globalization while protecting American interests. With a possible second Trump presidency on the horizon, worries about further erosion of democratic principles and the exacerbation of polarization worldwide are mounting.

Finally, many are concerned that Trump, with a freer hand in his second term, would endanger democracy not only abroad but also at home. Without the check of another election, Trump might pursue more radical policies and executive actions, potentially leading to significant consequences for the rule of law and the balance of power within the US government.

As the nation inches closer to the next presidential election, the unfolding dynamics will determine the course of American politics in the years to come.

[Peter Choi edited this podcast and wrote the first draft of this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/podcast are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.