• World
    • Africa
    • Asia Pacific
    • Central & South Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America & Caribbean
    • Middle East & North Africa
    • North America
  • Coronavirus
  • Politics
    • US Politics
    • Joe Biden
    • Extremism
    • Europe
    • European Union
    • India
    • Arab World
  • Economics
    • Finance
    • Eurozone
    • International Trade
  • Business
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Startups
    • Technology
  • Culture
    • Entertainment
    • Music
    • Film
    • Books
    • Travel
  • Environment
    • Climate Change
    • Smart Cities
    • Green Economy
  • Global Change
    • Education
    • Refugee Crisis
    • International Aid
  • International Security
    • ISIS
    • War on Terror
    • North Korea
    • Nuclear Weapons
  • Science
    • Health
  • 360 °
  • The Interview
  • In-Depth
  • Insight
  • Quick Read
  • Video
  • Podcasts
  • Interactive
Fair Observer Logo Fair Observer Logo
  • Sign Up
  • Support FO°
  • Login
  • LOGIN

    • Lost your password?
    Forget Password?

    New to Fair Observer? Register Now

    Contributor Member
Fair Observer Logo

Antoine van Agtmael: New Perspective on Europe, China and Demography

Antoine van Agtmael

  &  

Atul Singh

  -  February 15, 2023

Antoine van Agtmael is a legendary investor who came up with the term “emerging markets” and was the Chair of the Board of Trustees of the National Public Radio (NPR) Foundation. His distinguished track record as an investor and his rich professional career make him uniquely suited to read the tea leaves for the global economy and the future of clean tech. 

With Fred Bakker, van Agtmael is the author of The Smartest Places on Earth: Why Rustbelts Are the Emerging Hotspots of Global Innovation. Earlier in his career, van Agtmael authored The Emerging Markets Century: How a New Breed of World-Class Companies Is Overtaking the World. Few understand the big trends shaping the world better than van Agtmael. Given his track record, his views on the future of our planet are immensely important.

European Inflation

The EU is bracing for another year of high inflation and slow growth. The ongoing Russian-Ukraine War has no end in sight. As a result, gas prices remain high because of this massive supply shock. European economies are struggling to find alternative sources of energy and, as yet, have been unable to tame inflation.

Interest rates have risen and so has debt. This makes Europe vulnerable because servicing debt is becoming more expensive and it is hard to foresee new drivers of growth in an aging continent. Despite such problems, van Agtmael is optimistic about Europe. He thinks Europe will become more self-reliant in energy. Losing cheap Russian gas will hurt Europe in the short term. However, Europe will make meaningful structural reforms to remain competitive with China and the US long-term.

More Immigration?

Europe has a demographic crisis. The continent’s labor force is aging. Europe’s dependent population is growing as it struggles to find young workers to replace them. Van Agtmael believes that more immigration will eventually supply the labor, including the skilled workforce, Europe needs. However, many voters resist the idea and have voted in populist leaders who ran on an anti-immigration platform.

Many argue that more immigration may not be the solution. If low-skill workers immigrate, they are unlikely to contribute to growth. They may also come from more traditional and conservative societies. Such workers may face cultural barriers and struggle to integrate. Host societies are also wary of losing their homogeneity and identity. Van Agtmael believes that Europe must emulate the US and accept more immigrants to replace aging workers. Eventually, they will gain the requisite education and skills. Not everyone can be let in of course. A sensible immigration policy is the way forward. If Europe can find the right balance, it will have a sustainable workforce in the future.

Slowing Chinese Growth

China’s economy has grown phenomenally over the last four decades. However, recent crises have been slowing it down. Under President Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has turned increasingly authoritarian and ultranationalist. Xi enforced a disastrous zero-COVID policy on China and has been extremely aggressive against Taiwan.

Xi’s zero-COVID decimated the economy and angered citizens. He has quietly and suddenly withdrawn this failed policy. Xi’s ultranationalism has caused greater tensions with his neighbors and with the US. President Joe Biden has choked off supply of advanced semiconductor chips, technology and machinery to China. 

Van Agtmael thinks China will overcome the challenges caused by American actions. Like Europe, China will have to adapt to painful short-term changes. However, its economy will adapt to the loss of advanced chips and evolve. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could change things though van Agtmael thinks that is unlikely. He envisages three scenarios unfolding and thinks the most optimistic one is the most probable.

[ Matthew Knudson wrote the first draft of this podcast description.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

ALSO AVAILABLE ON:
SPOTIFY ITUNES AMAZON

More Episodes

The Hot Mic: Analyzing Biden's 2nd Term, Chinese Spy Balloons, and Unstable Energy Markets

Atul Singh & Christopher Roper Schell, March 17, 2023

Antoine van Agtmael: The Future of Emerging Markets, India and Inequality

Antoine van Agtmael & Atul Singh, March 11, 2023

The Hot Mic: Divided US Congress, German Tanks and China’s COVID Catastrophe

Atul Singh & Christopher Roper Schell, February 10, 2023

Antoine van Agtmael: Stagflation and Race for Clean High Tech

Antoine van Agtmael & Atul Singh, January 31, 2023

Must Listen

Fair Observer

The Hot Mic: Trump Trumped, Looming Recession and India-China Clash

Atul Singh & Christopher Roper Schell, January 11, 2023
Fair Observer

As US and China Clash, Taiwan Moves Closer to the Brink of Disaster

Atul Singh & Glenn Carle, August 15, 2022
Fair Observer

Serbian City Novi Sad: European Through Culture

Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe, August 13, 2022
Fair Observer

Joe Biden’s Saudi Arabia Visit to Meet Mohammad bin Salman

Arab Digest, August 12, 2022
Fair Observer

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Russia-Ukraine War

Arab Digest, August 6, 2022
Fair Observer

India & Japan: Implications of Ukraine on Asia (Episode 2)

Fair Observer, August 3, 2022
Fair Observer

Putin Takes the Middle East and North Africa to the Precipice of Disaster

Arab Digest, July 29, 2022
Fair Observer

Italy, Tunisia and Algeria Form a Mediterranean Energy Treble

Arab Digest, July 22, 2022
Fair Observer, 461 Harbor Blvd, Belmont, CA 94002, USA
Subscribe

Subscribe

Register for $9.99 per month and become a member today.

Subscribe

Publish

Join our community of more than 2,500 contributors to publish your perspective, share your narrative and shape the global discourse.

Subscribe

Donate

We bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your donation is tax-deductible.

Explore

  • About
  • Republish
  • Authors
  • Privacy Policy
  • FO Store
  • Terms of Use
  • FAQs
  • Contact

Regions

  • Africa
  • Latin America & Caribbean
  • Asia Pacific
  • Middle East & North Africa
  • Central & South Asia
  • North America
  • Europe

Topics

  • Politics
  • Environment
  • Economics
  • Global Change
  • Business
  • International Security
  • Culture
  • Science

Sections

  • 360°
  • Video
  • The Interview
  • Podcasts
  • In-Depth
  • Interactive
  • Insight
  • My Voice
  • Quick Read

Daily Dispatch

Designed, Developed and Maintained by Netleon Technologies
© Fair Observer All rights reserved
Fair Observer Education Logo Fair Observer Leadership Academy Logo

    Fill below form to share your concern with us

    *Indicates required field

    BOOKMARK

    Want to save this post?

    Register as a member to support independent journalism and enjoy subscriber benefits.

    BECOME A MEMBER

    NEWSLETTER

    Make Sense of the World

    Unique Insights from 2,500+ Contributors in 90+ Countries

    NEWSLETTER

    Make Sense of the World

    Unique Insights from 2,500+ Contributors in 90+ Countries

    Fair observer

    Make Sense of the World

    Unique Insights from 2,500+ Contributors in 90+ Countries

    We Need Your Consent
    We use cookies to give you the best possible experience. Learn more about how we use cookies or edit your cookie preferences. Privacy Policy. My Options I Accept
    Privacy & Cookies Policy

    Edit Cookie Preferences

    The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.

    As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media.

     
    Necessary
    Always Enabled
    These cookies essential for the website to function.
    Social Media
    These cookies are used to enable sharing or following of content that you find interesting on our website. These settings apply to third-party social networking and other websites.
    Performance & Functionality
    These cookies are used to enhance the performance and functionality of our website. They provide statistics on how our website is used and help us improve by measuring errors. Certain functionalities on our website may become unavailable without these cookies.
    Analytics
    SAVE & ACCEPT