Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, discuss the imminent revolution in space and the space economy. Reusable rockets, commercial stations and nuclear propulsion could transform access to orbit and the industries that depend on it. The consequences reach beyond exploration to agriculture, communications, manufacturing and national security.
Glenn anticipates a revolution in the use of space over the next two to ten years, comparable to the dissemination and development of electricity grids in 19th-century economies or the spread of the Internet and the cell phone. His central argument concerns the launch of a space economy: Cheaper transport could make activities commercially viable that previously remained beyond reach.
Reusable infrastructure changes the economics
The transition from expendable hardware to reusable infrastructure lies at the heart of this shift. Falcon 9 already reuses its first stage. Starship is designed to reuse both its Super Heavy booster and its upper-stage spacecraft, carrying substantially more cargo into low Earth orbit (LEO). The comparison below reproduces the approximate prices, capacities and targets used in the discussion.
| Rocket vehicle | Status in the supplied late-2026 comparison | Dedicated launch price | Maximum payload to LEO | Minimum cost per kilogram to LEO |
| SpaceX Starship | Operational testing; recently reached orbit | Approximately $10 million, internal target | 100,000–150,000 kg | $100–$500, target |
| SpaceX Falcon 9 | Operational; market leader | Approximately $74 million, list price | 22,800 kg, listed as reusable | Approximately $3,250 |
| CASC Long March 5, China | Operational | Approximately $70 million, estimate | 25,000 kg | Approximately $3,250 |
| Arianespace Ariane 6, ESA | Operational | $77 million–$115 million | 10,350–21,650 kg | $5,300–$7,400 |
| Rocket Lab Neutron | In development; late-2026 debut target | Approximately $50 million–$55 million, target | 13,000 kg with downrange recovery | Approximately $3,800–$4,200 |
| Rocket Lab Electron | Operational; small-satellite launcher | Approximately $7.5 million | 300 kg | $25,000 |
These figures illustrate the scale of the proposed change, but payload configuration matters. Actual launch prices vary with payload and mission configuration. Using the comparison’s numbers, Starship would carry roughly four to seven times Falcon 9’s listed payload. A reduction from $3,250 to 100–500 per kilogram would make transport approximately 6.5 to 32.5 times cheaper.
Starship reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites on September 28, 2026. SpaceX’s Flight 14 plan specified those payloads and identified orbital insertion, deployment, a deorbit burn and controlled reentry as its primary objectives. The flight represents progress toward an operational system, while routine recovery and reuse remain essential to the economic promise.
Glenn identifies ship-to-ship refueling and reliable recovery of both rocket stages as further milestones. SpaceX’s September 15 development update also lists a ship-to-ship propellant transfer demonstration among its remaining lunar-lander milestones.
Launch frequency matters as much as payload. The discussion envisages the following annual cadence:
| Rocket vehicle | Current cadence in the comparison, 2025–2026 | Near-term target, 2027–2028 | High-volume scenario, 2029–2030 onward |
| SpaceX Starship | Approximately 4–6 test flights a year | 50–100 flights a year | 300–1,000 or more flights a year |
| SpaceX Falcon 9 | Approximately 140–165 flights a year | 100–120 flights a year | 20–50 flights a year, assuming a phaseout |
| CASC Long March 5 | Approximately 5–8 flights a year | Approximately 10–15 flights a year | Approximately 15–20 flights a year |
| Arianespace Ariane 6 | Approximately 4–6 flights a year | Approximately 9–12 flights a year | Approximately 12 flights a year, described as a pad limit |
| Rocket Lab Neutron | None; first launch anticipated in late 2026 or 2027 | 3–8 flights a year | 20–50 flights a year |
| Rocket Lab Electron | Approximately 20–25 flights a year | Approximately 30–40 flights a year | Approximately 40–50 flights a year |
Glenn expects Starship to displace much of Falcon 9’s work, while Neutron competes for medium-lift missions. Atul asks whether private American enterprise will give the US an advantage over China’s state-led model. Glenn regards Starship as a potentially decisive advantage but emphasizes the coherence, ambition and technical strength of China’s program. American commercial leadership does not automatically settle which country reaches the next lunar milestone first.
The next wave of space milestones
The period from 2027 to 2031 could bring a concentrated burst of space technology milestones. The timeline below provides a list of anticipated moments in spacecraft development.
| Timing | Development | Primary vehicle or technology | Economic or operational significance |
| Mid-2027, projected | Rocket Lab Neutron debut | Neutron, with a reusable first stage | Adds competition in medium-lift launches and supports satellite constellation deployment |
| 2027 | Artemis III risk-reduction mission | Orion and commercial human landing systems | Tests rendezvous and docking operations in Earth orbit before a lunar landing |
| As early as 2028 | Axiom station development | Payload Power Thermal Module and subsequent modules | Begins the revised assembly sequence and enables an independent commercial platform |
| 2028 | Artemis IV crewed landing | SLS, Orion and a human landing system | Aims to return astronauts to the lunar surface for the first time since 1972 |
| 2029, scheduled | Starlab launch | SpaceX Starship, single launch | Delivers an integrated commercial station developed by Voyager and Airbus |
| 2030 onward, broader development horizon | Next-generation space nuclear propulsion | Advanced nuclear electric propulsion | Extends efficient deep-space transport; NASA’s initial demonstration is now targeted for late 2028 |
NASA lists Artemis III for 2027 and Artemis IV for early 2028, rather than the late-2028 landing in the supplied timeline. Axiom’s revised assembly plan allows independent operations as early as 2028, while Airbus identifies 2029 as Starlab’s scheduled launch year.
Commercial stations could succeed the International Space Station and support research, tourism and manufacturing. Glenn also describes the longer-term possibility of a rotating, doughnut-shaped station. Rotation could produce Earth-like artificial gravity in its inhabited outer ring, while a facility near the axis could offer a low-gravity environment for industrial work.
Such an arrangement could help address the bone loss and other health effects associated with prolonged weightlessness while preserving access to microgravity research. Glenn highlights the prospect of producing materials and electronic components under conditions difficult to reproduce on Earth. This rotating-station concept is distinct from the commercial stations presently scheduled in the timeline.
The nuclear propulsion pivot
Deep-space logistics are exploring alternatives to legacy chemical propulsion. Nuclear thermal propulsion heats propellant directly in a reactor. Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) instead uses a reactor to generate electricity, which powers electric thrusters. The latter combines relatively low thrust with high propellant efficiency, potentially improving payload capacity and deep-space operations.
The joint DARPA/NASA DRACO project originally targeted a nuclear thermal demonstration as soon as 2027. Glenn argues that falling launch costs alter the economics of deep-space systems and strengthen the case for nuclear electric propulsion.
The development outlook in the discussion envisions 10–500 kW reactor systems, ground testing through 2028 and initial flights around 2030. NASA’s current concrete milestone is earlier: Space Reactor-1 Freedom targets launch in late 2028 and arrival at Mars in 2029. It intends to demonstrate NEP and deliver SkyFall, a payload of three Mars helicopters.
Glenn connects improved propulsion to faster, more sustainable routes to Mars. The eventual travel time will depend on reactor power, spacecraft mass, trajectory and mission design.
Scheduled lunar landings
Between 2027 and 2029, lunar missions could begin laying the foundations of an industrial presence. NASA’s Artemis IV landing is one part of that process. Commercial companies, including Intuitive Machines, Blue Origin and Firefly Aerospace, are also developing robotic deliveries that could support surface science, communications and future power infrastructure.
NASA has awarded Intuitive Machines a south-pole delivery targeted for 2027 and Firefly a mission targeted for 2029. Further awards announced in July 2026 cover four missions intended for late 2028.
Lunar ice processing is a potential first step toward using resources beyond Earth. Water could support crews and, after processing, provide ingredients for propellant.
The space economy reaches beyond space hardware
The regional comparison used in the discussion illustrates the scale of government and commercial participation:
| Region | Government space budget only | Total space economy footprint, commercial and government |
| United States | Approximately $77 billion, federal civil and defense spending | Approximately 128 billion–142 billion; the supplied comparison associates this with roughly 38% of the global market |
| China | Approximately $19 billion, official or estimated | Approximately $350 billion, or 2.5 trillion yuan, including a broad commercial and state-backed ecosystem |
| Europe | Approximately $11.4 billion, or €9.5 billion, for ESA and national civil and defense activity | Approximately 50 billion–70 billion for the regional upstream and downstream ecosystem |
The $77 billion US government figure is supported by the Space Foundation’s report for 2024. The regional totals should not be read as comparable shares of one global total: 128 billion–142 billion is not 38% of a $626 billion economy. China’s $350 billion figure reflects a broadly defined commercial-space market estimate.
The trillion-dollar outlook is supported by major industry forecasts, although definitions and growth assumptions differ. Novaspace estimates a $626.4 billion space economy in 2025 and projects $1.01 trillion by 2034, with a 5.5% compound annual growth rate. The 12% rate attached to those endpoints in the discussion does not match the underlying forecast. Space Foundation reports $613 billion for 2024, with commercial activity accounting for 78%.
Glenn discusses a 2035 outlook of approximately $1.15 trillion, potentially reaching $1.9 trillion. A World Economic Forum and McKinsey forecast projects $1.8 trillion by 2035, including the broader value of space-enabled services.
What will this economy do? Much of its value will come from terrestrial applications: precision agriculture, AI-driven climate and disaster logistics, global supply-chain tracking and direct-to-cell telecommunications. Defense demand will also expand through missile tracking, communications, observation and rapid deployment capabilities.
In-space industry adds another layer, including orbital propellant depots, private station tourism and microgravity pharmaceutical manufacturing. Lunar resource processing could follow, with asteroid mining a more distant prospect. Cheaper launches widen the range of activities that companies can attempt.
For Atul and Glenn, the stakes extend to economies, governments and militaries. A transport system capable of moving far larger payloads at much lower cost could turn space infrastructure into an increasingly routine part of life on Earth. The decisive shift they see is from exceptional missions to sustained economic activity.
[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]
The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
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