Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh and political consultant Erik Geurts discuss Rodrigo Paz’s historic presidential victory in Bolivia. After nearly two decades of left-wing dominance under the Movement for Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo, MAS), Paz’s win on October 19 marks a dramatic shift. The conversation explores what this transition means for Bolivia’s fragile economy, its deep social divides and the wider rightward turn sweeping Latin America.

Geurts argues that Paz’s election signals the collapse of a political and economic model that has dominated Bolivia since 2006. But whether the new direction can endure remains an open question.

Rodrigo Paz wins in Bolivia

Geurts begins by describing the election as “definitely a turning point in Bolivia,” not merely a reaction to incumbents or fatigue with the MAS establishment. In his view, the key story is the end of the 21st-century socialist model associated with former Bolivian President Evo Morales and his party. For years, that model relied on centralized control, gas rents and heavy subsidies. As reserves dried up and the Central Bank was used as a political checkbook, the model became exhausted.

Paz’s election victory reflects the public’s desire for a new approach that reopens the country to private enterprise and global markets. The shift will also reshape foreign relations. Bolivia is expected to move away from its alignment with Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. Now, experts believe it will seek stronger ties with neighbors like Argentina and Chile, as well as the United States to the north.

Paz’s victory, Geurts says, is like a “Cinderella story,” as he was a complete underdog who defied expectations and rose to great heights. In the first round, he trailed badly in the polls but ended up ahead of the field. In the runoff, he defeated former Bolivian President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a political heavyweight, despite running on a much vaguer economic message. Paz presented himself as the less threatening option, a leader who promised change without the sharp edges of shock therapy.

Fixing Bolivia’s economy

Sworn into office on November 8, Paz has inherited an economy strained by inflation, shrinking gas output, fiscal deficits and a severely overvalued currency. Much of the crisis stems from years of underinvestment in the energy sector and an exchange-rate policy that encouraged imports while stifling private exports.

Paz offered few specifics during his campaign, but he may be forced to make tough choices as president. That includes seeking International Monetary Fund support — something Bolivian voters associate with austerity and foreign interference — and potentially floating the exchange rate. Paz has rejected the idea publicly, favoring a strategy of backtracking. Geurts insists that gradual adjustments do not “solve the issue of overvaluation.”

Despite these challenges, Paz is beginning his term with a sizable parliamentary advantage. His party and two allied pro-business parties together hold more than 80% of seats, giving him the votes needed for structural reform. These alliances are reinforced by personal and political ties: Quiroga has pledged cooperation, and Bolivian politician Samuel Doria Medina — whose party is the third-largest — has lent advisors and political capital to Paz.

Still, the president faces internal complications. His own party grew too quickly to be cohesive or experienced. His vice president, former Bolivian police officer Edmand Lara Montaño, is controversial for the radical way he expresses himself in public, such as stating it is his job to hold Paz accountable and denounce the president if he finds corruption. Implementing an economic overhaul will require discipline across a coalition that was not originally built for governing.

Polarization in Bolivia

Bolivia’s divides are longstanding: highlands versus lowlands, indigenous versus urban, MAS loyalists versus opponents. Roughly 70% of Bolivians now live in cities and are deeply embedded in the national economy. These voters urgently want dollars, fuel and stability; if Paz can deliver those basics, they will likely stay with him.

But the MAS base remains powerful. Morales, who is now breaking with his own party and forming a new movement, Evo Pueblo, still commands intense loyalty in the northern Chapare region. According to Geurts, his supporters there “really see him like a kind of a messiah.” Road blockages, marches toward the Bolivian political capital of La Paz and political agitation could quickly return. Managing Morales will likely be Paz’s primary challenge.

The state bureaucracy provides another hurdle. Key judicial and prosecutorial posts remain filled with MAS appointees. Paz will need to overhaul these institutions carefully to avoid accusations of politicization while still enabling effective governance.

The right-wing’s rise in Latin America

Zooming out, Geurts argues that Paz’s win is part of a broader regional cycle. From President Javier Milei in Argentina to President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador and conservative gains in Peru, much of Latin America is turning away from statist economic models and toward leaders promising discipline, security and markets.

Latin American neighbors see Bolivia’s shift as more evidence that the 21st-century socialist wave has crested. Even though left-wing governments in Colombia and Brazil remain in power, they no longer resemble the transformative projects once seen in Bolivia, Ecuador or Venezuela.

For now, Paz represents a break from Bolivia’s past. His leadership will test whether the region’s new right-leaning cycle can move beyond rhetoric and deliver results.

[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.