• World
    • Africa
    • Asia Pacific
    • Central & South Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America & Caribbean
    • Middle East & North Africa
    • North America
  • Coronavirus
  • Politics
    • US Election
    • US politics
    • Donald Trump
    • Brexit
    • European Union
    • India
    • Arab world
  • Economics
    • Finance
    • Eurozone
    • International Trade
  • Business
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Startups
    • Technology
  • Culture
    • Entertainment
    • Music
    • Film
    • Books
    • Travel
  • Environment
    • Climate change
    • Smart cities
    • Green Economy
  • Global Change
    • Education
    • Refugee Crisis
    • International Aid
    • Human Rights
  • International Security
    • ISIS
    • War on Terror
    • North Korea
    • Nuclear Weapons
  • Science
    • Health
  • 360 °
  • The Interview
  • In-Depth
  • Insight
  • Quick Read
  • Video
  • Podcasts
  • Interactive
  • My Voice
  • About
  • FO Store
Sections
  • World
  • Coronavirus
  • US Election
  • Politics
  • Economics
  • Business
  • Culture
  • Sign Up
  • Login
  • Publish

Make Sense of the world

Unique insight from 2,000+ contributors in 80+ Countries

Close

Nepal: Changing Fortunes?

By Michael Hutt • Feb 07, 2014

The quest for political stability in Nepal has begun.

Nepal’s first Constituent Assembly (CA) was elected in April 2008. The assembly was one of the principal outcomes of the People’s Movement of 2006 and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2007, the latter of which brought an end to the ten-year armed struggle between the state and the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist).

The 601-seat CA was the most diverse legislative body ever elected in Nepali history, and possibly in the political history of South Asia. One-third of its members were women, one-third were Janajati (ethnic minorities), and one-third were Madhesi (people of the southern Tarai plains). Further, Dalits occupied 8.7% of the seats. Meanwhile, elections took place under a mixed system of “first past the post” for the country’s 240 electoral constituencies and “proportional representation” (PR) for 335 seats, with 26 nominations making up the number. Parties were required to submit lists of PR candidates, ensuring a minimum level of representation for underrepresented groups, with 50% of the total to be women.

The Failed Assembly

The CA failed to produce a constitution for the new federal republic even after three extensions of its term in office; the assembly was eventually dissolved in May 2012. The reasons for this failure are still debated, but they certainly include the Indian political reaction to the unexpected emergence of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) — or UCPN(M) — as the largest group in the assembly and the many tensions and difficulties that arose in the peace-building process as a result, particularly in relation to the merging of Nepal’s two armies.

More broadly, however, the CA’s failure can be attributed to the fact that the effort to achieve a consensus on the constitution involved (mostly male and Brahmin) senior party leaders in high-level political struggle, with the bulk of assembly members being marginalized. Although the representation of marginalized communities had significantly improved, the level of their participation remained low.

Ultimately, the main points over which an agreement could not be secured included the future form of government, the electoral system and, perhaps most fatally, the question of how Nepal would be restructured as a federal state.

Janajati activists wanted provinces to be created and named after their largest ethnic minority, with indigenous groups being granted preferential rights to natural resources and some form of priority entitlement (termed as agra-adhikar) to political leadership positions. Madhesi activists wanted to see either one or two autonomous provinces.

But there was substantial opposition, even to significantly watered down versions of these proposals. There was also a practical difficulty, however, as the distribution of the Janajati population across Nepal represents a kind of ethnic mosaic, while a Janajati group constitutes a numerical majority in very few districts.

Stuck in Limbo?

Since the dissolution of the first CA, Nepal has been in a state of suspended transition. Controversially, the interim legislature was headed by the country’s chief justice because the political parties could not produce a consensus prime minister. After achieving such a spectacular electoral result in 2008, the UCPN(M) squandered the popular support it had gathered. Moreover, in June 2012, a faction broke away to become the NCP-Maoist, accusing the mother party of abandoning the ideology of revolutionary struggle.

Along with 32 minor parties, the new party tried to prevent and disrupt the elections with threats of violence, bandhs (general strikes), and the occasional bombing. The Nepali media quickly adopted a new shorthand for the two parties. The new party was labeled the “Dashists,” in an allusion to the hyphenated party name, and the old party was dubbed the “Cashists,” in reference to its alleged surrender to corruption and capitalist consumerism.

Eventually, and against many predictions, at least 65% of the electorate voted on November 19, 2013, to elect a new Constituent Assembly. Although the run-up to the vote was accompanied by normal campaigning practices of Nepali political actors — including vote-buying, threats, promises of favors, and so on — the polling process was universally acclaimed as free and fair by national and international observers, and only failed to take place in one constituency where the CPN-M Dashists held firm sway.

The results represented a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the UCPN(M), whose total number of seats fell to a mere 80 compared to 220 in 2008. This was largely due to the internal split, which robbed the party of many of its most committed cadres, and to public perceptions of the senior leadership as both arrogant and corrupt. As it became clear that the UCPN(M) was losing badly, its leadership cried foul and called for the counting of votes to be suspended, but to no avail.

The largest share of the vote was secured by the Nepali Congress, a centrist party that is the country’s oldest major grouping, which won 196 seats. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) — or CPN-UML — which now professes a heavily diluted form of communism, came a close second with 175 seats.

However, even a coalition between the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML will not constitute the two-thirds numerical majority in the CA that will be needed to enact a new constitution — a third partner will be required.

Such a coalition is likely to be fractious and progress on constitution-drafting will probably be hindered by internal power struggles. Moreover, in many Tarai constituencies, candidates from the Nepali Congress or CPN-UML were victorious in the first past the post contest with only a very small share of the vote. While the Madeshi Jan Adhikar Forum won 52 seats in the 2008 assembly, the Madeshi vote was split between eight different parties in 2013 as the forum won only ten seats, letting Nepali Congress and CPN-UML candidates win in many places.

The new CA membership will include not only fewer Maoists, but also fewer representatives of historically marginalized groups. Although the interim Constitution promulgated in 2007 contains a commitment to federalism (on the core principles of “equality, inclusion and a unifying national identity”), it is generally assumed that the election outcome represents a resounding rejection of ethnic federalism. With the political landscape now narrowing to fewer parties, some analysts suggest that there is a prospect for greater political stability in future.

However, this may be optimistic. With no party advancing an ethnic federalist agenda, its proponents may feel forced to adopt more of the same disruptive extra-parliamentary measures that have bedeviled political stability and economic development in Nepal for the past 20 years.

Moving Forward

The election of a new Constituent Assembly is the first positive development for many months in Nepal’s faltering process of national re-self-definition. However, the coming months will see a great deal of argument and negotiation over questions such as which party will be granted which ministerial portfolio. As such, the drafting of a new constitution may not be given priority.

Outside the assembly, the CPN-M and the UCPN(M) may begin to mend their differences, while Janajati and Madhesi activists may protest loudly that the government has abandoned the agenda of inclusion and is reducing the promised federalism to minimal decentralization.

It is difficult to be optimistic that the parties now represented in the Constituent Assembly will be able to achieve a two-thirds majority behind any constitution. But Nepal is no longer at war, and its politicians still speak to one another across the party walls. Although much of the state remains dysfunctional and many Nepalis have no better way of meeting their needs than simply emigrating to work abroad, at least the country now has an elected body charged with forging its future — a process that can now begin once again.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

Image: Copyright © Shutterstock. All Rights Reserved

Share Story
Categories360° Analysis, Central & South Asia, Politics TagsConstituent Assembly, Democracy, Elections, Focus Article, Maoists, Michael Hutt, minority representation, Nepal, Nepalese, Nepali, pluralism, political instability
Join our network of more than 2,000 contributors to publish your perspective, share your story and shape the global conversation. Become a Fair Observer and help us make sense of the world.

READ MORE IN THIS 360° SERIES

Not Everyone is Happy About Nepal’s Constitution
By Suman Giri & Rashesh Shrestha • Dec 24, 2015
Finally, Nepal Gets a Constitution
By Deepak Adhikari • Oct 06, 2015
Stop Child Labor in Nepal
By Suman Giri & Rashesh Shrestha • Jun 12, 2015
Closing the Gaps: Nepal's Marginalized Communities
By Pema Abrahams • Jan 12, 2014
Nepal: The Long Road Ahead
By Zainab Lokhandwala • Jan 05, 2014

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Post navigation

Previous PostPrevious Bluster and Blowback in Beirut
Next PostNext Obama Ignores Morocco’s Illegal Occupation and Human Rights Abuses
Subscribe
Register for $9.99 per month and become a member today.
Publish
Join our community of more than 2,500 contributors to publish your perspective, share your narrative and shape the global discourse.
Donate
We bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your donation is tax-deductible.

Explore

  • About
  • Authors
  • FO Store
  • FAQs
  • Republish
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Contact

Regions

  • Africa
  • Asia Pacific
  • Central & South Asia
  • Europe
  • Latin America & Caribbean
  • Middle East & North Africa
  • North America

Topics

  • Politics
  • Economics
  • Business
  • Culture
  • Environment
  • Global Change
  • International Security
  • Science

Sections

  • 360°
  • The Interview
  • In-Depth
  • Insight
  • Quick Read
  • Video
  • Podcasts
  • Interactive
  • My Voice

Daily Dispatch


© Fair Observer All rights reserved
We Need Your Consent
We use cookies to give you the best possible experience. Learn more about how we use cookies or edit your cookie preferences. Privacy Policy. My Options I Accept
Privacy & Cookies Policy

Edit Cookie Preferences

The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.

As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media.

 
Necessary
Always Enabled

These cookies essential for the website to function.

Analytics

These cookies track our website’s performance and also help us to continuously improve the experience we provide to you.

Performance
Uncategorized

This cookie consists of the word “yes” to enable us to remember your acceptance of the site cookie notification, and prevents it from displaying to you in future.

Preferences
Save & Accept