Sudan has been locked in a civil war since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict recently shifted when the RSF captured Khartoum on March 26. This marked a significant change in control. After the capture, Chairman of the Sovereign Council and Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visited the capital. In January 2025, the US imposed sanctions on al-Burhan based on allegations that he helped instigate the unrest.

The Sovereign Council appears to be consolidating power in Khartoum. Local militias remain outside its control. Analysts warn that this could lead to further violence, including events similar to the January 2024 massacre in Gezira.

Humanitarian groups have raised urgent concerns. According to Amnesty International, the SAF arrested or killed civilians suspected of supporting the RSF earlier this year. The UN and other organizations have reported widespread crimes against civilians. As of early 2025, the war has displaced more than 11 million people. Roughly 2.9 million have crossed into neighboring countries as refugees.

Fighting in Khartoum may soon shift toward al-Zurug base. The RSF has used this site during the 20-month war to bring in supplies from Chad and Libya. The UN warned in late 2024 that the violence could expand beyond Sudan’s borders.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) reports that civilians face frequent attacks and human rights violations. Sudan’s health care system has collapsed, and famine threatens many regions. Ethnic tensions, particularly between Arab tribes in Darfur, may worsen as the conflict evolves.

Attempts at diplomacy have failed. The UN tried to broker a peace deal in August 2024, but the SAF did not attend. The US is currently focused on other global conflicts, including those involving Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Hamas, and Iran. Other global powers have also declined to initiate a peace process. Without foreign mediation, no ceasefire appears likely. Experts warn that both sides may continue fighting indefinitely unless external actors intervene.

“Sudan is forgotten!” wrote Islamic State in its weekly publication, Al Naba. The group’s editor called for jihad and argued that Muslims in Sudan should take up arms under the Islamic State’s banner.

Experts remain pessimistic about the possibility of a ceasefire. They argue that without pressure or incentives, both the SAF and RSF will continue military operations. Ankara, which has previously served as a mediator, has not taken new steps to convene peace talks. Unless a workable peace plan emerges, the conflict is likely to escalate further.

[Asmita Adhikari edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.