Perspectives and scenarios for regime transition in Uzbekistan.

* The Arabic: طاغوت (taghut) means to “cross the limits, overstep boundaries” or “to rebel” vis-à-vis divine authority. Traditionally a term connoting idolatry, it is mentioned in the politically significant Qur'anic verse 4:76. During the medieval period, it has was used by Muslims to describe the rampaging Mongol khans and their vassals. Today, in contemporary Islamic political theory, it has come to be used to describe dictatorships, i.e., as violating the will of God.

Abstract

Although it can take some more years, eventually it's only a matter of time before Uzbekistan's ruthless authoritarian leader, Islam Karimov, dies from old age. In a three-part analysis series, Ghent University's Dr. Bruno De Cordier and NewEurasia.net's Christopher Schwartz examine whether indeed all hell could break loose when he finally does, and whether the Karimov regime's choices, both now and in the future, shall place their country on a direct path to Islamicization.

Part I: Ceauşescu Redux?

As Uzbekistan's ruthless authoritarian leader, Islam Karimov, turns 74 this month and celebrates 20 years as president, he must be hearing the sand-drip of the hourglass in the back of his mind. So, too, is his entire country, and indeed, much of the world, as everyone is beginning to wonder: what shall happen after he is finally gone?

Forecasting can sometimes be tricky, if not illusory. The danger of wishful thinking or reading the available data completely wrong is real. An expected or an abrupt death, reasonably natural in appearance or blatantly suspicious, in the presidential palace, while on a state visit abroad, or during a meeting overseas – these “little” factors shall actually determine a lot of whether Uzbekistan undergoes a transition either terrifyingly swift, surprisingly calm, or rocky and inconclusive. The devil of contingent details enjoys this guessing game because only he knows the nitty gritty of the how and why. Nevertheless, the inevitable death of Karimov promises to be a major turning point in the history of post-Soviet Central Asia, and so readers of the political signs we must be.

An obvious method of predicting what could transpire is to analyze other authoritarian regimes and re-apply the lessons to Uzbekistan. In this “redux approach,” the most ready characters for comparison are Turkmenistan'sGurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, Romania's Nicolae Ceauşescu, Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Syria's Bashar al-Assad. These scenarios boil down to: quick death and smooth transition with little change, quick overthrow and smooth transitions or long overthrow and rough transition with either outside military intervention or not. Most importantly, only a few of these scenarios offer any potential for change.

Berdimuhammedov’s swift rise to power in late 2006 based on a bloodless palace coup and widespread shock, stoicism or apathy among the grassroots of Turkmen society, led to no change. This type of scenario in Uzbekistan would end in “stability” because the appropriation of national resources would not change, particularly in the most lucrative industrial sectors (natural gas in Turkmenistan, cotton in Uzbekistan), and totalitarian oppression of the masses (notoriously flamboyant in Turkmenistan, but no less insidious in Uzbekistan) and the deep secrecy with which the regime makes decisions would remain.

The fall of Ceauşescu in late 1989 was preceded by unstructured social unrest in the provinces, followed by violent protests in the capital that culminated in the demise of the president, his family and their key cronies. Applied to Uzbekistan, much can potentially change depending upon the leaders of the revolt. We've seen some sort of Ceauşescu scenario in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 and 2010 but the first revolution, which saw the rise of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, also experienced a reversal of gains for the general public, both in terms of civil liberties and prosperity. Moscow and Beijing would prefer a transition similar to Berdimuhammedov’s but Washington, Brussels and the major European capitals would be left feeling morally queasy. In a case like Ceauşescu’s, Moscow (if not implicated in the coup) and Beijing would likely cringe and try to influence the results via their intelligence services and economic levers. In the West, only Brussels might have some sway over the situation while Washington could only tentatively approve but have little ability to shape the course of events.