American writer and international correspondent John Gunther, in a moment of inspired refinement, coined the following phrase in 1944: Bolivia is not a country, it’s a problem. He was referring to Bolivia’s political instability. Ironically, it’s one of the few stable things in the country. In the political rollercoaster that jolts Bolivians between coups d’état, Bolivians have faced no less than 194 such episodes since independence. The most recent one on June 26, led by General Juan José Zúñiga, ended in a resounding failure – and with scenes of legitimate comedy.

The failed coup reveals political and social instability

Zúñiga and his forces marched to the traditional Palacio Quemado in the country’s capital La Paz to oust Bolivia’s current president, Luis Arce. His men even broke down a gate with an armored car. The problem, to recallGunther, is that Arce does not work in Palacio Quemado. Rather, he occupies the Great People’s Palace, a modern building on a corner of the same block. 

In a scene that went around the world, Arce walked up to Quemados and faced Zúñiga eye to eye. With the support of politicians, part of the Armed Forces and society, Arce turned the messy action into dust. He then walked back to the Great People’s Palace and swore in a new military leadership. “No one can take away the democracy we have won. We are sure that we will continue to work,” he said as Zúñiga’s troops left the square. 

Aside from the clumsiness, the action in Bolivia reveals a considerable degree of seriousness when placed in the context of the crises that are terrorizing South America. Just remember the recent attacks on democracy carried out in Peru, Chile, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia, including the criminal action of the Bolsonaro supporters on January 8 in Brazil. Whether governed by the left or the right, emerging Latin American countries can’t keep pace with competitors. The usual wounds – technological backwardness, poverty, inequality, a shortage of value-added products for export – are still exposed in the 21st century.

Bolivia has yet to escape colonial yokes

The coup plot and political turmoil in Bolivia have their origins in lithium. The country has the world’s largest reserves of this mineral. It is estimated that regions to the south of Bolivia contain 21 million tons, especially in the area known as Salar de Uyuni. Lithium is the raw material for batteries, especially those for electric cars. As the industry in the sector has grown spectacularly in recent years, the price of the product per ton has risen from $5,000 USD in 2010 to $80,000 USD in 2022. 

The United States and China, the main manufacturers of vehicles with high-performance batteries, are fighting a silent war for control of production. Currently, lithium production and exportation is controlled by the Chinese. As the US government fights for  control over lithium production, more seismic tremors can be expected soon. The botched and misguided invasion of Quemados demonstrates that Bolivia, and the rest of South America, has not yet rid itself of the colonial caudillo (leader) figure. “It’s typical of banana republics in colonized countries,” explains Paulo Niccoli, PhD in Social Sciences and a professor at Casa do Saber. He interviewed former president Evo Morales in 2022 and released a book about the movement that removed him from power three years earlier: The 2019 Coup in Bolivia: Imperialism against Evo Morales. 

Arce has two problems on his hands

Now Arce still has to contend with the bumbling military on top of the endless appetite of Evo Morales. Despite coming from the same party, the Movement towards Socialism (MAS), Morales wants to recapture the party in order to return to power in the 2025 elections. Arce used to be a friend of Morales, who, in turn, supported his election. However, Morales cut ties because of Arce’s closeness to right-wing figures. Among them was Zuñiga. “You have to understand the country. You have economic hubs like Santa Cruz de la Sierra, totally dominated by the neoliberal right, but the rest of Bolivia is mostly progressive. In order to govern, Arce began to bring in various right-wing figures, including this general who promoted the theatrical coup, is accused of corruption and has had numerous conflicts with Morales,” explains Niccoli.

Zuñiga’s idea was to use the coup to bury Morales’ possible candidacy in the 2025 presidential elections. This would have been done to the detriment of President Arce’s attempt to be re-elected. Zuñiga  believed Arce would agree to a self-coup, remain in power and cancel the next elections. However, the local Supreme Court has not even authorized Evo’s attempt at a fifth term. Morales continues to campaign across the country to mobilize support.  Clearly, Zuñiga’s approach was half-baked and unnecessary. 

“The maneuver was totally anachronistic,” Niccoli sums up. “With the end of the Cold War and the stability of democracies, the era of so-called soft coups began, without the use of military force.”” Niccoli also cites the cases of the Kirchners in Argentina and Michelle Bachelet in Chile, all sponsored, he says, by economic powers. “The script is always the same.” Not for Zuñiga, it seems.

Shortly before going to jail, an isolated Zúñiga threatened to release two staunch opponents of Arce: former interim president Jeanine Añez and the governor of Santa Cruz, Luis Fernando Camacho. But the problem – to borrow the international correspondent’s phrase again – is that they both emphatically condemned the coup attempt. “The mandate of the popular vote must be respected. Any action against it is absolutely illegal and unconstitutional,” said Camacho. The Bolivian Public Prosecutor’s Office promises to investigate and put in jail the military and civilians who took part in the action. The years and decades go by, and Gunther is increasingly right.

[Cheyenne Torres edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.