In, all eyes are on . and Belarus are intimately connected, so political actors in feel an immediate connection with developments there.
In formal terms, the two countries form a “union state” and an economic and defense community.is ’s closest ally and a linchpin for Russian neighborhood policy. For two decades, has funded and subsidized state and economy. This has become a high price for a complicated relationship, as President consistently — and successfully — spurns Russian attempts to deepen integration.
Belarus Election Unleashes Unprecedented Anti-Government Protests
Heading a joint state inhad been raised as an option for keeping Russian President Vladimir Putin in power after 2024. was less than enthusiastic and turned, as always in moments of tension with , to the . That variant is off the table, now that the amended Constitution permits Putin two more terms in the Kremlin.
A Lack of Distance
Despite growing political differences,continues to support through his latest domestic political travails. Official figures put his share of the presidential vote at 80%. The candidate of the united opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, had just 10%, according to the Central Election Commission. Opposition exit polls paint a very different picture, with some showing the proportions exactly inverted.
Since the announcement of the results on August 9, the country has seen ongoing mass demonstrations, to which the security forces have responded with brutality. Nevertheless, President Putin congratulatedon his “victory” as expected.
The Russian political discourse pays very close attention to developments in, reflecting a persistent post-imperial lack of distance to its sovereign neighbors. Looking at the Russian discussion, one might forget that there actually is a border between and , much as was the case following the Ukrainian presidential election in 2019.
Another reason for this closeness lies in the similarity of the political systems. Both are aging autocracies that are out of touch with the societies they rule and suffer rapidly evaporating legitimacy. The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic is tangibly accelerating these processes in both states.
The Russian state media tend to play down the significance of the events and push a geopolitical interpretation in which the protesters are a minority controlled by hostile Western actors. They would not exist without Western support, it is asserted. The objective of Western policy is said to be reducing Russian influence in the region and, ultimately, “regime change” in. In other words, the issue is not liberty but geopolitical rivalry.
In this understanding, the trouble in Minsk is just the latest in a long series of Western plots against— following the 2014 Euromaidan in Ukraine and the “color revolutions” of the early 2000s. The needs of society are completely ignored.
independent media, on the other hand, seek to present a realistic picture, concentrating on developments within and ’s loss of public legitimacy. is also treated as a template for own political future. Comparisons are frequently drawn with the ongoing protests in Khabarovsk, with speculation whether Minsk 2020 might be 2024.
Foreign policy analysts indo not believe that Tsikhanouskaya can expect Western support. is divided, they note, weakened by COVID-19 and preoccupied with internal matters, while the United States is generally incapable of coherent foreign policy action. The regime will weather the storm, they believe, but emerge from it weakened.
This, in turn, will increase Lukashenko’s dependency on. Regime-loyal and more critical foreign policy experts alike concur that will ultimately profit from the situation in Minsk without itself having to intervene politically or militarily.
The coming days will tell whether that assumption is correct. The regime in Minsk may have lost touch with the realities ofsociety, but it has good prospects of survival as long as the state apparatus backs Lukashenko and maintains its support.
But if the unrest grows to paralyze the country, a Russian intervention cannot be excluded. The costs would be enormous, in view of the pandemic and the economic crisis. And an intervention could also harm the Kremlin domestically, where it has its own legitimacy problems. On the other hand, it would not be the first timechose geopolitics and great power bravado over economic and political reason. And rulers are still happy to ride roughshod over society, both at home and in .
Thecannot overlook the massive election fraud and the brutality of the security forces against unarmed demonstrators. It should back the demand for new elections, offer mediation and impose additional sanctions if the regime refuses to alter its current stance. But in the process, it should do everything it can to preserve contacts within Belarusian society. Clear communication with is vital, both to float possible solutions and to lay out the costs of intervention. There is no need to fear a quarrel — the has been in a conflict with for a long time already.
*[This article was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions relating to foreign and security policy.]
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
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