Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Benjamin Delille, foreign correspondent for the French newspaper Libération, discuss US President Donald Trump’s confrontation with Venezuela. The discussion probes Washington’s stated war on drugs, the revival of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine and the internal dynamics that continue to insulate Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from regime change. Delille situates current US actions within a broader geopolitical contest involving China, Russia and Latin America’s future alignment.

A fake war on drugs

Delille opens with a blunt assessment of US military operations in the Caribbean, describing them as a “fake war on drugs.” While Washington claims it is targeting narcotics trafficking to save American lives, Delille argues that the stated rationale does not align with available evidence or operational priorities. He believes the drug narrative functions primarily as a political cover for pressuring the Maduro regime.

He challenges claims that Venezuela plays a central role in fentanyl trafficking, stating that such assertions are “completely false.” Fentanyl is produced in Mexico and enters the United States primarily through the southern border. On cocaine, Delille cites data collected by the United Nations showing that only about 10% of Colombian production transits through Venezuela, with most of that flow bound for Europe rather than the US.

Delille does not deny that elements within the Venezuelan state may participate in trafficking networks, particularly in cooperation with Colombian armed groups along the border. However, he characterizes Maduro as a marginal figure in the global drug economy — a survivalist actor rather than a dominant trafficker. If the objective were genuinely narcotics enforcement, Delille argues, US policy would focus far more directly on Mexican and Colombian cartels.

The Trump corollary and strategic motives

Singh steers the conversation toward geopolitics, asking why Venezuela has become such a focal point for the Trump administration. Delille points to Trump’s national security strategy from December 5, 2025, which formally articulated what the president called a corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. The document signals a renewed emphasis on enforcing US primacy in the Western Hemisphere.

Delille situates this move within a longer historical arc. The original Monroe Doctrine sought to exclude European powers from the Americas, while the Roosevelt Corollary later justified US military intervention to protect American interests. The Trump corollary, Delille argues, goes further by asserting Washington’s willingness to act decisively against governments that challenge US dominance in the region.

While Venezuela’s oil reserves and mineral wealth, including gold and coltan, are significant, Delille sees geopolitics as the primary driver. The country’s close ties with China and Russia under Hugo Chávez and Maduro have made it a symbolic and strategic target. Reasserting influence in Venezuela, he suggests, would signal a broader rollback of Chinese and Russian presence across Latin America.

The 2024 election and María Corina Machado

The discussion then turns to Venezuela’s disputed 2024 presidential election and the rise of opposition leader María Corina Machado. Singh notes the scale of Venezuela’s humanitarian collapse, citing UN figures that 8.5 million people have fled the country since 2015 — the largest exile in modern history for a country not formally at war.

Delille describes Machado’s campaign as unusually effective, centered on a simple promise of family reunification. When the Maduro government disqualified her from running, she backed retired diplomat Edmundo González as her proxy, telling voters, “A vote for Edmundo González is a vote for me.” According to Delille, the regime’s failure to publish verifiable election results — citing a cyberattack on voting systems — made the theft of the election visible to both Venezuelans and the international community.

Delille also emphasizes Machado’s ideological alignment with right-leaning leaders such as Argentinian President Javier Milei and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, making her a natural partner for the Trump administration. Her long-standing calls for US intervention further distinguish her from previous opposition figures.

Why regime change remains elusive

Despite mounting pressure, Delille remains skeptical that Maduro will be removed quickly. He recalls the failed 2019 effort during Trump’s first term, when Washington attempted to flip the Venezuelan military by recognizing Juan Guaidó, who had a claim to the presidency. That effort faltered because the armed forces are deeply fragmented and internally surveilled — a structure former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez designed after surviving a 2002 coup attempt.

Delille also highlights the role of Cuban intelligence in protecting Maduro. Since an early-2000s deal between Chávez and Cuban President Fidel Castro exchanging oil for security expertise, Cuban operatives have helped insulate the Venezuelan leadership from internal betrayal. This, Delille argues, makes it unlikely that even large bounties or sustained pressure will prompt insiders to turn Maduro over.

Looking ahead, Delille suggests the Trump administration cannot sustain a costly Caribbean deployment indefinitely without tangible results. Whether through a limited military strike or a negotiated deal granting US access to Venezuelan resources, he believes Washington will eventually manufacture a decisive outcome — a “flame of victory” — and move on, regardless of whether genuine regime change occurs.

[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/podcast are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.