Dear FO° Reader,

As you may know, the US and Israel conducted missile strikes targeting Iran beginning on February 28. The first wave of strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as many powerful figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). On March 8, Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the country’s clerical body, selected Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to be Iran’s Supreme Leader. 

Both Israel and the US have called their strikes “preemptive,” claiming the purpose of the attack is to stop the development of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Regime change has also been cited by both as a reason for the strikes, as well as the Iranian regime’s violent crackdown on protesters. 

These strikes also come after the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran. It commenced on June 13, 2025, when Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and top military commanders, claiming the state was close to developing nuclear weapons. Then, on June 21, the US joined the conflict with Operation Midnight Hammer. In the attack, the US deployed over 125 aircraft and used its biggest “bunker-buster” bombs on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

Israel Strikes Iran. Tehran Hits Back. What Now? | Fair Observer By Josef Olmert and Atul Singh | Jun 18, 2025

SOURCES:

Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?

What to know about Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader 

What Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions 

12-Day War (June 2025) | Strike, Ceasefire, Attack, Nuclear Program, Ayatollah Khamenei, American bases, Map, & United States | Britannica 

It is important to note that while several reasons have been offered as to why the US and Israel are carrying out these attacks now, the bad blood between these three countries has a long history. And, just as it is important to explore the context surrounding the current conflict, it is doubly important to understand the historical context of the tensions between the US and Israel and Iran.

Luckily for you, Fair Observer has published a plethora of podcasts, videos and articles that delve deep into the history leading up to this particular content. Fair Observer is dedicated to providing a multifaceted view of current events, and this conflict is no different. For your listening and reading pleasure, I have compiled a few of these informative pieces. 

Iran’s hostility towards the West has a historical precedent

First, I invite you to listen to this episode of The Dialectic, FO’s flagship podcast hosted by founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh alongside retired CIA officer Glenn Carle. The two trace the long history of how the Iranian civilization has come to see itself at odds with the US and Israel. 
 

How Iran Became a Great Power and Why It Hates America and Israel By Glenn Carle and Atul Singh | August 19, 2025

I highlight this first because of the extensive research done by Atul and Glenn. There are very few places where you’ll get such an in-depth analysis of a country’s psyche — especially an analysis that includes history as far back as 1505. Most Western education and analysis, as noted by Glenn, largely ignore the influence of the Persian Empire on modern Iran. This imperial history defines Iranian cultural identity today. 

Glenn and Atul explore the history of Iran from Reza Shah Pahlavi’s 1921 coup and the Islamic Revolution (more on both later) to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and US President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Another unique feature of this historical analysis is not only its deep dive into history — it is also Atul and Glenn’s exploration into scenarios regarding Iran’s future. Not many put the pieces of the puzzle together, so to speak.

Josef Olmert predicted the strike on Iran

Speaking of putting puzzle pieces together, esteemed FO author Josef Olmert, a former Israeli government official and Middle East scholar, correctly predicted that the US would strike Iran. In an interview with Atul, Olmert explains that because Operation Midnight Hammer failed to achieve its core objectives, a strike on Iran by the US and Israel would be a continuation of that attack.
 

Josef Olmert on Why a US Strike on Iran Now Seems Inevitable | Fair Observer By Josef Olmert and Atul Singh | February 24, 2026

Olmert’s prediction isn’t unsupported or illogical; he provides an extensive analysis to back up his reasoning. Based on domestic fragilities, weak regimes and the failure of Operation Midnight Hammer, Olmert concluded that a strike was inevitable.  “Such a show of force,” Olmert says, “without an action by Trump, can happen only if the Iranians will make [an official, dramatic concession] public.”

Like The Dialectic episode I mentioned above, Olmert’s analysis is unique because he also provides potential outcomes for the US-Israeli strike on Iran. He warns that if the first strike is not decisive — that is, a strike that doesn’t take out Iran’s core military assets — then the potential for a long, drawn-out conflict increases. Olmert also points out that without a coherent “follow-up” strategy, an attack may not have the transforming quality the US and Israel want for the region.

FO Talks: Josef Olmert on Why a US Strike on Iran Now Seems Inevitable By Josef Olmert and Atul Singh | February 26, 2026

Regional transformation has been a decades-long fight

Now isn’t the only time outside players have attempted to transform the region or Iran, and the US and Israel haven’t been the only key players. A series of three articles co-authored by Mehdi Alavi and Atul explain the history of regime change in Iran and how much of the state was influenced by foreign actors. Each article presents the argument that imperial interference from Britain and the US paved the way for a theocratic regime to arise in Iran by putting three of Iran’s leaders under the microscope.

The first part of the series focuses on Reza Shah, who ruled Persia from 1925 to 1941. The British Empire, wishing to keep a hold on the Persian oil market, allowed his rise to power as well as his corrupt leadership. Ultimately, British imperial interference weakened Iran against other foreign powers.
 

The Dirty Secrets About How Reza Shah Destroyed Iran By Mehdi Alavi and Atul Singh | October 31, 2022

The second article delves into the rule of Mohammad Reza Shah (the Shah), Pahlavi’s son. The Shah was a pawn for both the British (who wanted to retain their hold on oil profits) and the US (who had deposed the Shah’s opposition, Mohammad Mosadegh). With both powers allowing the Shah to keep a hold on leadership, the Shah’s corruption ran unchecked. The Shah’s brutal oppression and opulent spending ultimately led to the 1979 Iranian Revolution that placed the mullahs and Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini in charge.

Revolution Erupted in Iran Because of Mohammad Reza Shah By Mehdi Alavi and Atul Singh | November 08, 2022

In the third article, the authors take a close look at Mohammad Mosaddegh, Iran’s prime minister from 1941 to 1953. He had promised to end British control of Iran’s oil industry and, in 1951, successfully passed legislation to nationalize it. Unfortunately, this led the British to outsource a coup. They managed to convince the US that Mosaddegh was a communist sympathizer, and the US deposed him as a result. 
 

Why Do You Need to Know About Mohammad Mosaddegh? By Mehdi Alavi and Atul Singh | January 27, 2023

As readers, we must follow the patterns

So, foreign intervention in the region is not a new phenomenon. Neither is the goal of regime change or regional transformation. This is why investigating historical context is important: Without it, current events cannot be understood.

We at Fair Observer invite you to follow the contextual patterns and ask questions about potential outcomes. In the meantime, we urge you to do your own research. Fair Observer is a great place to start.