It was common knowledge that afailure to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) before the presidential would help conservative hard-liners to win. Indeed, on June 18, the conservative Ebrahim Raisi was elected as the new president of .
Raisi has a record of brutally cracking down on government opponents, and his is a severe blow to struggling for a more liberal, open society. He also has a history of anti-Western sentiment and says he would refuse to meet with President Joe Biden. While incumbent President Hassan Rouhani, considered a moderate, held out the possibility of broader talks after the returned to the JCPOA, Raisi will almost certainly reject broader negotiations with Washington.
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Could Raisi’s victory have been averted ifhad rejoined the nuclear deal right after coming into the White House and enabled Rouhani and the moderates in to take credit for the removal of sanctions before the ? Now we will never know.
The Donald Trump in 2018 drew near-universal condemnation from Democrats and arguably violated international law. But ’s failure to quickly rejoin the deal has left Trump’s policy in place, including the cruel “maximum pressure” sanctions that are destroying ’s middle class, throwing millions of people into poverty, and preventing imports of medicine and other essentials, even during a pandemic.withdrawal from the agreement under
sanctions have provoked retaliatory measures from , including suspending limits on its uranium enrichment and reducing cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Trump’s, and now ’s, policy has simply reconstructed the problems that preceded the JCPOA in 2015, displaying the widely recognized madness of repeating something that didn’t work and expecting a different result.
If actions speak louder than words, the US seizure of 27 and Yemeni international news websites on June 22, based on the illegal, unilateral sanctions that are among the most contentious topics of the Vienna negotiations, suggests that the same madness still holds sway over policy.
Biden Takes His Time
Sincetook office on January 20, the critical underlying question is whether he and his administration are really committed to the JCPOA or not. As a presidential primary candidate, Senator Bernie Sanders promised to simply rejoin the nuclear deal on his first day as president. has always said it was ready to comply with the agreement as soon as the rejoined it.
has been in office for five months, but the negotiations in Vienna, Austria, did not begin until April 6. His failure to rejoin the agreement on taking office reflected a desire to appease hawkish advisers and politicians who claimed he could use Trump’s withdrawal and the threat of continued sanctions as “leverage” to extract more concessions from over its ballistic missiles, regional activities and other questions.
Far from extracting more concessions,’s foot-dragging only provoked further retaliatory action by , especially after the assassination of an scientist and sabotage at ’s Natanz nuclear facility, both probably committed by Israel.
Without a great deal of help, and some pressure, from America’s European allies, it is unclear how long it would have takento get around to opening negotiations with . The shuttle diplomacy taking place in Vienna is the result of painstaking negotiations with both sides by former European Parliament President Josep Borrell, who is now the European Union’s foreign policy chief.
The sixth round of shuttle diplomacy has now concluded in Vienna without an agreement. drag them out for a long time.Raisi says he supports the negotiations, but would not allow the to
An unnamed before Raisi takes office on August 3, noting that it would be more difficult to reach an agreement after that. But a State Department spokesman said talks would continue when the new government takes office, implying that an agreement was unlikely before then.official raised hopes for an agreement
Will They or Won’t They?
Even ifhad rejoined the nuclear deal, ’s moderates might still have lost this tightly managed . But a restored JCPOA and the end of sanctions would have left the moderates in a stronger position. It would have also set ’s relations with the and its allies on a path of normalization that would have helped to weather more difficult relations with Raisi and his government in the coming years.
Iffails to rejoin the JCPOA, and if the or Israel ends up at war with , this lost opportunity to quickly rejoin the deal during his first months in office will loom large over future events and his legacy as president.
If the mass murderer.does not rejoin the JCPOA before Raisi takes office, ’s hard-liners will point to Rouhani’s diplomacy with the West as a failed pipe-dream, and their own policies as pragmatic and realistic by contrast. In the and Israel, the hawks who have lured into this slow-motion train-wreck will be popping champagne corks to celebrate Raisi’s inauguration, as they move in to kill the JCPOA for good, smearing it as a deal with a
Ifrejoins the JCPOA after Raisi’s inauguration, ’s hard-liners will claim that they succeeded where Rouhani and the moderates failed and take credit for the economic recovery that will follow the removal of sanctions.
On the other hand, iffollows hawkish advice and tries to play it tough, and Raisi then pulls the plug on the negotiations, both leaders will score points with their own hard-liners at the expense of majorities of their people who want peace. In doing so, the will be back on a path of confrontation with . While that would be the worst outcome of all, it would allow to have it both ways domestically, appeasing the hawks and telling liberals that he was committed to the nuclear deal until rejected it. Such a cynical path of least resistance would very likely be a path to war.
On all these counts, it is vital thatand the Democrats conclude an agreement with the Rouhani government and rejoin the JCPOA. Rejoining it after Raisi takes office would be better than letting the negotiations fail altogether, but this entire slow-motion train-wreck has been characterized by diminishing returns with every delay, from the day took office.
Neither the people ofnor the people of the have been well served by ’s willingness to accept Trump’s policy as an acceptable alternative to Barack Obama’s, even as a temporary political expedient. To allow Trump’s abandonment of Obama’s agreement to stand as a long-term policy would be an even greater betrayal of the goodwill and good faith of people on all sides — Americans, allies and enemies alike.
and his advisers must now confront the consequences of the position their wishful thinking and dithering has landed them in. They must make a genuine and serious political decision to rejoin the JCPOA within days or weeks.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.
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