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What if the UK Makes a Brexit?360°ANALYSIS

Leaving the European Union would have negative effects for the UK in the long term.

On June 23, millions across the United Kingdom will vote in a referendum to decide if the country should make a “Brexit” by leaving the European Union (EU).

The “European question in British politics” has dominated the news agenda since Prime Minister David Cameron promised to hold an in-out referendum before 2017. This was in response to growing calls from right-wing voices within his own Conservative Party and the UK Independence Party (UKIP) to let the public decide if they want to remain in a club where Britain is bound by Brussels’ regulations, high membership fees and is not free to establish its own trade agreements with the rest of the world.

As of early June, opinion polls show that competition between the “remain” and “leave” camps is extremely tight, and the British public’s vote could swing either way on June 23. But what will happen if the UK leaves the EU?

This Bertelsmann Stiftung video explains that two Brexit scenarios are possible: A “soft exit” might mean that the UK keeps a similar status to Switzerland and maintain trade relations with the EU; while a “worst case” scenario might result in the UK losing access to the single market, and face higher import taxes or trade tariffs on goods and services.

Overall, a Brexit has more negative effects for the UK in the long term and might result in a decline in slower productivity growth and innovation in the country.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

Photo Credit: Abi Begum / Flickr

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