• World
    • Africa
    • Asia Pacific
    • Central & South Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America & Caribbean
    • Middle East & North Africa
    • North America
  • Coronavirus
  • Politics
    • US Election
    • US politics
    • Donald Trump
    • Brexit
    • European Union
    • India
    • Arab world
  • Economics
    • Finance
    • Eurozone
    • International Trade
  • Business
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Startups
    • Technology
  • Culture
    • Entertainment
    • Music
    • Film
    • Books
    • Travel
  • Environment
    • Climate change
    • Smart cities
    • Green Economy
  • Global Change
    • Education
    • Refugee Crisis
    • International Aid
    • Human Rights
  • International Security
    • ISIS
    • War on Terror
    • North Korea
    • Nuclear Weapons
  • Science
    • Health
  • 360 °
  • The Interview
  • In-Depth
  • Insight
  • Quick Read
  • Video
  • Podcasts
  • Interactive
  • My Voice
  • About
  • FO Store
Sections
  • World
  • Coronavirus
  • US Election
  • Politics
  • Economics
  • Business
  • Culture
  • Sign Up
  • Login
  • Publish

Make Sense of the world

Unique insight from 2,000+ contributors in 80+ Countries

Close

Is Afghanistan Ready to Negotiate With the Taliban?

One of the main problems facing Afghanistan is that those who oppose the Taliban do not have a unified agenda.
By Abbas Farasoo • Jan 28, 2020
Afghanistan news, Afghanistan peace talks, Afghanistan Taliban talks, Afghan peace process, Taliban news, US withdrawal from Afghanistan, US Taliban talks, Afghan government news, Afghanistan political parties, Afghanistan political system

© Mehaniq / Shutterstock

After more than a year of negotiations between US and Taliban representatives in Qatar, talks have now reached a critical point. The two sides are reportedly close to signing an agreement that will pave the way for intra-Afghan dialogue and the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.

However, it is not yet clear who will have the mandate negotiate with the Taliban in the intra-Afghan peace talks. The Taliban had for a long time refused to talk with the Afghan government. The National Unity Government (NUG) is divided. President Ashraf Ghani is still waiting for the results of the September election — marred with low turnout and widespread fraud — to be announced. The country’s chief executive, Abdullah Abdullah, and his deputy, Mohammad Mohaqiq, are preparing to bypass Ghani to negotiate with the Taliban.  

Who’s Qualified?

So who has the qualifications to be an effective actor to agree a peace deal with the Taliban? The answer is, the Afghan government. But there are severe challenges against the NUG as the primary actor in this equation. First, the current election crisis in the country is a turning point, meaning that now the Taliban — and Pakistan — will not take the government seriously as a legitimate actor in the peace process. Ashraf Ghani’s administration is diminished to his small network, which will be unable to lead the anti-Taliban factions in the intra-Afghan negotiations.

Second, Ghani has failed to create a broader political consensus in the country to unify those who oppose the Taliban’s role in the peace process around a single agenda to make a stronger political front. 


Without Curbing the Opium Trade, Afghanistan Is Unlikely to See Peace

READ MORE


If the government is sidelined in the peace process, who else could be the Taliban’s counterpart to negotiate the future political order of the country? The answer is not straightforward. There is a possibility that parties outside the government, such as Jamiat-e Islamic, Junbish-e Milli Islamic and Hezb-e Wahdat Islami, could come together with other politicians from the Pashtun community, like former President Hamid Karzai.

The Taliban has shown interest in talking with Jamiat, Junhish and Wahdat, which have fought against the Taliban in the late 1990s and are still influential in the Afghan politics. At the moment, these parties are weak and diminished to a network of individual leaders and their families. They also lack the military power to counter the Taliban during the negations to avoid a takeover by the group in case no government structure is agreed.

The Post-Conflict Order

One of the main problems facing Afghanistan is that those who oppose the Taliban do not have a unified agenda. In recent years, Jamiat has been advocating for a parliamentary system in order to decentralize power in Kabul, while Junbish and Wahdat have historically called for a much broader decentralization agenda and administrative reforms to give more power to local governments when it comes to policymaking and implementation.

At the same time, decentralization, in theory, makes local government more accountable to the local population through elections, which can increase the engagement between society and both state at local levels. The intra-Afghan dialogue is an opportunity for these parties to pursue this agenda.

However, other actors like Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin — the party of former warlord and Afghanistan’s prime minister, Hekmatyar Gulbuddin — and Hamid Karzai are supporting a centralized political system. But a highly centralized and personality-based political system has proven largely dysfunctional in the past two decades. It has undermined local governance and the relationship between the state and the people.

For example, Afghans play no role in electing their governors at provincial and district levels — governors are Kabul appointees only responsible to the president. This has increased the gap between the state and society on the one hand, and multiplied pressures on Kabul on the other.

logo

Make Sense of the World

Unique insight from 2,000+ contributors in 80+ Countries

Make Sense of the World
Unique insights from 2000+ contributors in 80+ countries

In the past, the centralized system worked through clientelism and patron-based networks. By supporting tribal leaders against each other, the government has been trying to monopolize social relations at the expense of creating conflict and isolating segments of society at local level. This method of governance resulted in high levels of corruption and nepotism. 

However, the decentralization agenda of the above-mentioned parties has never been articulated as a unified proposal. Having different ideas about decentralization of power and administrative structure of government, they seem unlikely to appear as a united front to enforce this agenda in negotiations with the Taliban. Particularly, decentralization has been labeled as foreign conspiracy and betrayal in the past by both the government and those who supported a centralized system. 

While Ghani, the Taliban and Hezb-e Islami Gilbuddin emphasize a centralized political system, they have disagreements on values and norms such as human rights, democracy, free elections and political equality in the country, which are all enshrined in the current constitution. Ghani will support these values in negotiations with the Taliban, while he doesn’t see a problem with a highly centralized political structure.

Ghani missed opportunities in the past to strengthen the role of his government in the peace process. For instance, he failed to reform the election commission in order to hold transparent elections and restore credibility after the 2014 election crisis. Even today, much of Ghani’s cabinet is run by acting ministers, including the ministry of foreign affairs.

Now, if the Taliban and other political actors push for an interim government or a caretaker administration, the role of the NUG will be sidelined. If there is not a clear role for the government in the peace process or in enforcing order during the peace talks, Afghanistan will balance on the verge of collapse of its political system and even civil war.

Other Factors

Other actors such as youth, women, civil society and the media have not been taken seriously during the peace process. From the Taliban’s and Pakistan’s point of view, Afghanistan is an ethnic and tribal society, and politically one must deal with the heads of tribes, ethnic groups and ethnic-based parties of the Cold War era. Therefore, both Pakistan and the Taliban prefer those old leaders as a counterpart in the intra-Afghan dialogue to either the government or civil society representatives. 

The next question is about the role of the US and the international community during the intra-Afghan dialogue. It is likely that after signing an agreement with the Taliban to draw down its troops in Afghanistan, the United States will not be in the position to support any anti-Taliban actors. Especially if the negotiations take longer, it would be difficult for the US to force the Taliban or other sides to reach an agreement. 

If the US wants to put pressure on the Taliban during the talks, it might be interpreted as going against the agreement. Also, the Taliban can draw out the negotiation period, while the US will be obliged to withdraw its forces according to an agreed schedule. Once the US leaves the country, the Taliban could use violence to press the government or anti-Taliban factions for its favored political settlement, the Islamic Emirate.

Bad Scenarios

US negotiations with the Taliban and Pakistan bring back the specter of the Geneva Accords of 1988 between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which paved the way for the Soviet withdrawal and subsequently the collapse of the Afghan government. The agreement failed to bring peace, plunging the country into a bloody civil war in the 1990s.

When the opposition to the Taliban, the government included, is weak and divided, three possible scenarios arise. First, the Taliban will play a bigger role in designing the peace deal and its implementation procedures. In this process, the current political order will be mostly, if not entirely, compromised. As a result, there will not be a power-sharing mechanism or decentralization of the political makeup. Instead, a highly centralized and undemocratic political system will be imposed, perhaps under a different name than the Islamic Emirate. 

Embed from Getty Images

Second, if the government lacks broader political support both internally and externally, there is a high risk of the collapse of the system during the intra-Afghan dialogue, particularly if the talks take longer and disagreements arise among different parties. The Taliban will not hesitate to use violence in the course of the talks. If that happens, a new civil war would become a possibility.

Third, proposing an undemocratic system for the post-conflict order will set the stage for the next crisis. As far as the anti-Taliban factions are divided and the role of the government is unclear, the Taliban will not compromise its position in the peace process. The Taliban rejects elections and insists on the Islamic Emirate, which is a religious totalitarian model based on restricted interpretation of Islamic law. If it succeeds in getting its wish, there will not be space for dissenting voices and human rights. This welcomes a new conflict. 

Changing the situation in favor of the Taliban makes a durable peace difficult. Even if the current system does not collapse during the chaos of the US withdrawal, and peace talks are stalled for the time being, a highly centralized undemocratic system is dangerous in a country as diverse and divided as Afghanistan. At this point, this type of anticipation seems unreasonable given war fatigue, but 40 years of conflict show that this scenario is not unconceivable.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

Share Story
CategoriesCentral & South Asia, Election News, Global Terrorism News, Insight, International Security, Islamic terrorism news, Politics, World News TagsAfghan government news, Afghan peace process, Afghanistan news, Afghanistan peace talks, Afghanistan political parties, Afghanistan political system, Afghanistan Taliban talks, Taliban news, US Taliban talks, US withdrawal from Afghanistan
Join our network of more than 2,000 contributors to publish your perspective, share your story and shape the global conversation. Become a Fair Observer and help us make sense of the world.

Post navigation

Previous PostPrevious The Fame and Death of Kobe Bryant
Next PostNext The Metapolitics of the Far Right
Subscribe
Register for $9.99 per month and become a member today.
Publish
Join our community of more than 2,500 contributors to publish your perspective, share your narrative and shape the global discourse.
Donate
We bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your donation is tax-deductible.

Explore

  • About
  • Authors
  • FO Store
  • FAQs
  • Republish
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Contact

Regions

  • Africa
  • Asia Pacific
  • Central & South Asia
  • Europe
  • Latin America & Caribbean
  • Middle East & North Africa
  • North America

Topics

  • Politics
  • Economics
  • Business
  • Culture
  • Environment
  • Global Change
  • International Security
  • Science

Sections

  • 360°
  • The Interview
  • In-Depth
  • Insight
  • Quick Read
  • Video
  • Podcasts
  • Interactive
  • My Voice

Daily Dispatch


© Fair Observer All rights reserved
We Need Your Consent
We use cookies to give you the best possible experience. Learn more about how we use cookies or edit your cookie preferences. Privacy Policy. My Options I Accept
Privacy & Cookies Policy

Edit Cookie Preferences

The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.

As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media.

 
Necessary
Always Enabled

These cookies essential for the website to function.

Analytics

These cookies track our website’s performance and also help us to continuously improve the experience we provide to you.

Performance
Uncategorized

This cookie consists of the word “yes” to enable us to remember your acceptance of the site cookie notification, and prevents it from displaying to you in future.

Preferences
Save & Accept