The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between Japan, the US, Australia and India, commonly known as the Quad, has evolved significantly since its inception in 2004. Initially formed as a response to the humanitarian crisis following the Indian Ocean tsunami, the Quad has transformed into a strategic partnership addressing various regional challenges.

Periods of inactivity and revival have marked the Quad’s journey. After its initial formation in 2004, the Quad went dormant for several years before reviving in 2017. The Quad’s resurgence in recent years reflects the changing geopolitical landscape and the growing alignment of interests among its members

One of the most significant shifts in the Quad’s focus has been China’s increasing role as a strategic adversary. Although the initial formation did not explicitly aim to counter China, shared concerns about China’s assertiveness have become key factors in the Quad’s recent activities. This alignment on the China issue among the four partners has strengthened the group’s cohesion.

Future prospects and challenges

The Quad has also expanded its agenda to include a wider range of public goods and initiatives. While this expansion demonstrates the group’s versatility, there are concerns about the potential overextension of its focus. Careful calibration and agenda management will be critical for the Quad’s effectiveness in the coming years.

Looking ahead, the Quad faces several challenges and opportunities. The political commitment of each of the four members remains crucial, especially considering the potential for leadership changes through democratic elections in each nation. The group must also navigate the balance between securitization and maintaining its focus on providing regional public goods.

The question of institutionalization looms large for the Quad’s future. Decisions about whether to establish a formal secretariat or maintain a more flexible structure will impact its operations and regional perception. Furthermore, the Quad’s integration with other regional organizations and government agencies among the four partners presents challenges and opportunities for enhanced cooperation.

The Quad’s evolution reflects the dynamic nature of Indo-Pacific geopolitics. Its ability to adapt to changing regional priorities and challenges has been key to its resurgence and continued relevance. As strategic competition with China remains a significant driver, the Quad must balance this focus with its broader agenda of providing public goods and fostering regional cooperation. Delivering tangible benefits to the region and navigating the complex web of bilateral and multilateral relationships in the Indo-Pacific will likely shape the grouping’s future.

As the Quad enters its third decade, its flexibility and responsiveness to regional needs will be crucial in determining its long-term impact on the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape.

[Peter Choi edited this podcast and wrote the first draft of this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/podcast are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.