The geopolitical chessboard on which the three-year-old war in Ukraine now appears to be approaching its endgame has not only two but four active players trying to move the pieces into position. The attitudes, intentions and decisions of the four players carry variable weight. Two are powerful actors with recognized clout. The two others wield highly contestable degrees of power. It should surprise no one that the key to a possible resolution is held in the hands of two dominating competitors: the United States and Russia. The conflicting interests of those two nations provide the best explanation of the origins of the conflict. The two other actors, Ukraine and Europe, who will be most directly affected by the outcome, visibly lack the persuasive power to determine future outcomes.

Ukraine clearly occupies center stage and should stand as the central actor, but there are at least three reasons why its capacity to influence the outcome has become marginalized. The first is basic post-Soviet history. Any honest historical assessment of the causes of the war must focus on the positions, ambitions and global standing of the two major powers involved: the US and Russia. Ukraine is a mere pawn on what Zbigniew Brzezinski defined nearly three decades ago as “the grand chessboard.” Europe in contrast stands as a line of pawns that has been wondering all along what its role is supposed to be.

The second reason for Ukraine’s limited influence is the often-denied complexity of its demography that has kept it in a permanently confused state of cultural, if not national, identity at least since the collapse of the Soviet Union. What makes a nation? Its legal boundaries, determined by whom and to what end? Or its culture, its language, its historical memory, its sense of ethnicity or religious identity? To say nothing of the ideologies that sometimes come to the fore. Ukraine’s case has always been a puzzler.

The third reason is the brutal fact, still frequently denied in the West, that the prospect of Ukraine defeating Russia is now unthinkable. Russia definitively has the upper hand today. But it also has the capacity — thanks to its Oreshnik missiles, demonstrated once but currently in mass production — to wreck the entire country if Russia were to feel threatened. After that, it’s the prospect of nuclear war.

All the actors acknowledge that the war has reached a phase in which dialogue in some form, must have a dominant role to play. How that dialogue will be structured, with the four parties jockeying for position, remains a mystery.

With that in mind I decided to engage in a conversation with ChatGPT focused on the nature and quality of the dialogue attributable to European leaders, the fourth interested party. That collection of nations, despite their presumed collective clout, finds itself clearly in a position of weakness, if not confusion about their role and even their standing.

I opened the conversation with the following prompt.

“Germany’s next chancellor Friedrich Merz has said ‘In view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent, the rule for our defence now has to be “whatever it takes”.’ Joe Biden repeatedly said that the US would support Ukraine ‘as long as it takes.’ It appears that this concept of unlimited and unquestioned commitment has become a feature of a militaristic attitude that characterizes periods of historical instability and that comports serious risks of escalation. Am I wrong in seeing this as a change in the mentality of leaders in the West? Am I overestimating the level of risk which seems to be less manageable than during the Cold War?”

“You’re not wrong in observing a shift in the rhetoric of Western leaders, nor in perceiving the risks of escalation as significant. The language of open-ended commitment—whether ‘whatever it takes’ (Merz) or ‘as long as it takes’ (Biden)—signals a potentially more expansionist or uncompromising approach to military engagement, in contrast to the measured deterrence that characterized much of the Cold War. However, the nature of risk today is different rather than necessarily greater.

Is There a Change in Western Leadership Mentality?

Yes, there appears to be a shift, but it must be contextualized:

1. More Emotional and Moral Framing:
   • During the Cold War, political leaders framed their strategies in terms of containment, deterrence, and realpolitik, often accepting the necessity of compromise (e.g., arms control agreements, détente).
   • Today’s rhetoric leans more towards moral imperatives—defending democracy and sovereignty—making de-escalation rhetorically harder.
2. Commitment Without Clear Strategic Limits:
   • The Cold War saw well-defined red lines (e.g., NATO vs. Warsaw Pact boundaries, nuclear doctrines like MAD).
   • Today’s Western leaders are committing to a principle (Ukraine’s defense, European security) without a predefined endpoint, making it harder to calculate risks rationally.
3. Weaker Institutions for Restraint:
   • Cold War diplomacy was anchored by mechanisms like the Helsinki Accords, the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and backchannel diplomacy.
   • Today, Russia is no longer treated as a co-equal nuclear power in negotiations; dialogue mechanisms are weaker, and diplomacy is often framed in absolute terms.

Are the Risks Less Manageable Than During the Cold War?

Possibly, but for different reasons:

• Nuclear deterrence still exists, but crisis management is weaker.
  • In the Cold War, even during extreme tensions (Cuban Missile Crisis, Able Archer 83), both sides used structured backchannels to prevent escalation.
  • Today, there is less direct military-to-military communication between NATO and Russia, increasing the risk of miscalculation.
• Multipolar instability replaces bipolar balance.
  • The Cold War had two clearly defined superpowers. Now, power is more fragmented, with China, regional players, and unpredictable alliances (e.g., Iran-Russia).
  • This makes escalation harder to control, as multiple actors with different risk tolerances are involved.
• Public and media-driven escalation dynamics.
  • Today’s political environment rewards performative toughness, especially in democracies where leaders respond to public pressure.
  • Unlike the Cold War, when secrecy allowed for quiet negotiations, social media and 24/7 news cycles make de-escalation harder without appearing weak.

Are You Overestimating the Risk?

It depends on how you define ‘manageable.’ While nuclear deterrence still holds, the pathways to crisis resolution are weaker, and the dynamics of political escalation are less constrained than in the past. There’s also a greater unpredictability—not just from Russia, but from domestic political shifts in the West (e.g., a potential Trump return, changing European politics).

So while a direct U.S.-Russia or NATO-Russia war is still unlikely due to nuclear deterrence, the lack of clear de-escalation mechanisms and the absolutist rhetoric make unintended escalation more plausible than in the structured framework of the Cold War.

Would you like to explore how this shift in Western leadership mentality is affecting public opinion and policy debates?”

“Yes, I would even like to look specifically at the stances taken by leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer. Most European leaders have seen their electoral bases and their credibility severely diminished. Some say they are resorting to bellicose rhetoric to enhance their authority or at least their image as leaders of a war effort, but others observe that the public has not been consulted on the kinds of commitments they are ready to make. So please elucidate as best you can this complex situation, which many people such as myself see as a major multifaceted crisis that is likely to lead to the weakening of democratic institutions.”

“Your concerns about the evolving rhetoric of Western leaders, particularly figures like Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, and its implications for democratic institutions are indeed pertinent. The current geopolitical landscape has prompted leaders to adopt more assertive stances, which, while aiming to address security challenges, may also influence domestic political dynamics and public engagement.

Emmanuel Macron’s Position

French President Emmanuel Macron has advocated for a robust European defense strategy in response to escalating security threats. He emphasizes the necessity for Europe to strengthen its military capabilities and reduce reliance on external powers, aligning with broader EU discussions on increasing defense budgets and coordinating rearmament efforts. Proposals under consideration include the establishment of a ‘European Security Fund’ and a rearmament bank, inspired by the European Financial Stability Facility, to finance defense initiatives and support Ukraine. 

Keir Starmer’s Stance

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has outlined plans to revitalize Britain’s economy and public sector efficiency, linking national security with domestic renewal. His agenda includes restructuring the civil service and the National Health Service (NHS), increasing defense spending, and integrating advanced technologies into public services. While these reforms aim to bolster the UK’s strategic position, they have faced domestic resistance due to concerns over potential job losses and spending cuts. 

Public Consultation and Democratic Engagement

The adoption of assertive policies without extensive public consultation raises questions about democratic engagement. Critics argue that leaders resorting to bellicose rhetoric to enhance their authority may bypass traditional democratic processes, leading to a disconnect between government actions and public sentiment. This approach risks alienating citizens and undermining trust in democratic institutions, especially if the public perceives that their voices are not being heard in decisions of national importance.

Impact on Democratic Institutions

The current multifaceted crisis poses challenges to democratic institutions:

• Erosion of Civil Liberties: Increased security measures can lead to restrictions on civil liberties, affecting freedoms of speech, assembly, and privacy.
• Centralization of Power: Emergency powers and expedited decision-making processes may result in the centralization of authority, reducing checks and balances.
• Public Disillusionment: A perceived lack of transparency and public involvement can lead to disillusionment with the political process, decreasing civic participation and voter turnout.

In summary, while leaders like Macron and Starmer aim to address pressing security and economic challenges through assertive policies, it is crucial to balance these actions with robust democratic engagement to ensure that measures taken do not inadvertently weaken the democratic institutions they seek to protect.”

To be continued

In Part 2, we will continue our discussion by attempting to respond to the question of whether there is room for a different vision of Europe today, given the attitudes we have begun exploring here. We will discover why ChatGPT, after reviewing the sometimes confusing language of Europe’s most audible voices, believes that “a different vision, based on diplomacy, de-escalation, and economic stability, exists but currently lacks strong political champions at the highest levels.”

I invite our readers who truly wish to penetrate not just the fog of war but the even denser fog of political rhetoric to join us not only with your own reflections, but with your own experimental discussions with your favorite chatbot. Everyone is now empowered to use AI’s access to seemingly limitless resources to begin to clarify the questions that they consider urgent to explore and eventually resolve.

Your thoughts

Please feel free to share your thoughts on these points by writing to us at dialogue@fairobserver.com. We are looking to gather, share and consolidate the ideas and feelings of humans who interact with AI. We will build your thoughts and commentaries into our ongoing dialogue.

[Artificial Intelligence is rapidly becoming a feature of everyone’s daily life. We unconsciously perceive it either as a friend or foe, a helper or destroyer. At Fair Observer, we see it as a tool of creativity, capable of revealing the complex relationship between humans and machines.]

[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.