[This video was recorded in the days preceding the second round of Bolivia’s election. This write-up has been updated to include more recent information.]

Fair Observer’s Video Producer Rohan Khattar Singh speaks with Pablo Bejar, a country risk analyst with experience at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, about the stunning outcome of Bolivia’s recent presidential election. On October 19, the contest entered a runoff between Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira and former Bolivian President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga — a social democrat from the Christian Democratic Party and a center-right technocrat, respectively — marking the first center-right face-off in roughly two decades.

For Bejar, this moment signals a profound shift in Bolivia’s political trajectory after years under the rule of the Movement Toward Socialism (Movimiento al Socialismo, or MAS).

Bolivia demands change

Bejar describes the faceoff as “a unique opportunity,” underscoring the symbolic end of the MAS era. After 20 years of dominance, the socialist movement that rose with former Bolivian President Evo Morales and was governed under his successor now commands only around 8% of the vote across its affiliate parties. Opposition parties have seized control of parliament, and roughly nine in ten Bolivians have expressed a desire for “complete, radical change.”

This discontent was visible long before election day.  Shortages of diesel, gas, hard currency, and the highest inflation levels seen in almost 40 years left citizens exhausted by the economic crisis. Bejar argues that the MAS government rode a long-gone commodity boom and completely failed to sustain its gains. Once Bolivia’s gas fields declined and foreign reserves dwindled, the macroeconomic stability, democratic alternation of power and liberalizing reforms and investments of the 1990s and early 2000s — later harnessed but ultimately squandered by the Morales-Arce MAS governments from 2006 to 2025 — gave way to deep structural economic scars.

The youth vote

Nearly half of all ballots came from young voters who have known no political reality other than MAS rule. Their turnout reflected frustration rather than ideology: They wanted jobs, stability and honest governance. Bejar explains that many of these voters were hoping for change, and their votes tipped the balance against the establishment. The shortages of foreign exchange and basic goods — particularly diesel and gasoline — as well as inflationary pressures, convinced much of the population that the system itself had failed.

Khattar Singh observes that this generational shift carries regional echoes. Latin America’s youth, from Buenos Aires in Argentina to Quito in Ecuador, have grown up skeptical of populist promises. Bejar adds that this sentiment could reshape the continent’s political balance as younger generations favor pragmatic competence over charisma.

Paz vs. Quiroga

Paz and Quiroga offered distinct yet overlapping visions. Paz, the son of former Bolivian President Paz Zamora, served as a mayor and senator but has never led the national government. Bejar says Bolivians consider him “more of a social democrat,” emphasizing his anti-corruption platform. His popular vice-presidential running mate, Edmand Lara Montaño, is a former policeman whose appeal lies with lower-income, less educated and former MAS voters. Quiroga, by contrast, is a veteran figure: He briefly served as president after the death of Bolivian President Hugo Banzer in 2001 and represents the country’s traditional technocratic bloc.

Paz’s campaign was unprepared for its own success. It lacked a full slate of congressional candidates and has now recruited new members — some of them former MAS politicians. A further complication lay in internal divisions: Paz and his running mate appear to hold disparate views on policy, particularly over subsidies and fiscal discipline. Quiroga, Bejar suggests, exploited these contradictions, but it was not enough.

Quiroga’s preliminary advantage

Quiroga’s greatest strength was his experience. With over three decades in politics, he offered voters a sense of stability that contrasted with Paz’s untested optimism. His long association with the pre-MAS era of the 90s could have alienated rural voters, but Bejar argues that his administrative credibility might’ve won over those who prioritize competence over novelty. Moreover, the cordial relationship between the two candidates, rooted in Quiroga’s past service as finance minister under Paz’s father, lent the race an air of civility unusual in Bolivian politics.

The runoff was unpredictable. Bejar believes the outcome hinged on which candidate could better convince voters that he represented real, sustainable change rather than a recycled elite. And in the end, that was Paz — he won the runoff with 54.5% of the vote against Quiroga’s 45.5%, confirming that Bolivia’s electorate favored renewal over experience.

Libertarianism on the rise

Khattar Singh closes the discussion by situating Bolivia’s vote within a continental pattern. Across Latin America, libertarian, right-leaning and more pragmatic candidates have recently triumphed in Argentina, Ecuador and El Salvador, respectively, and with a high likelihood of change from the left in the upcoming presidential elections in Chile and Colombia next year. Bejar sees these results as evidence of a broader ideological turn. The victory of Argentinian President Javier Milei — a libertarian — was a major boost to advocates of free markets and lower state interventionism, and a warning to leftist governments across the region and the world. Populations frustrated with high levels of bureaucracy and corruption, and coupled with severe economic mismanagement, are gravitating toward smaller governments, fiscal restraint and lower taxes.

Whether Bolivia’s own rightward movement will produce renewal or relapse remains to be seen. For now, the electorate has spoken clearly: After two decades of one-party leftist rule, Bolivians are ready to follow a different path.

[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.