FO° Exclusive: A Turbulent Donald Trump Second Presidency

Now that US President Donald Trump has returned to office, he will implement protectionist policies, raising tariffs and limiting immigration. In the next four years, the US will increasingly isolate itself and abdicate global leadership, and the US and China will divide the world up into two increasingly separate economies.

Check out our comment feature!

[On December 31, 2024, we predicted seven developments for 2025 and boldly went where only fools, angels and astrologers dare to go. So, what can we expect in 2025? To borrow words from the military, a more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. This is Part 1 of a seven-part series.]

US President Donald Trump won the election by promising more secure borders and higher tariffs. Now that he is in office, he will clamp down on immigration. Trump and his team believe in protectionism and isolationism. The underlying idea is to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US. So, expect higher tariffs. Lower immigration is likely to lead to economic harm. Tighter labor markets, higher costs for businesses and increased inflation are likely to follow.

Republican divide on immigration

As an issue, immigration has created a divide within Trump’s camp. The trigger was his selection of Sriram Krishnan as senior adviser for AI in his administration. Krishnan is a Tamil Brahmin (Tam Brahm) who was born in India. He did his undergrad at SRM Institute of Science and Technology (SRMIST) and is a general partner of American venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. This high-achieving Tam Brahm heads the firm’s London office and is pals with both former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Tesla and X CEO Elon Musk.

Krishnan’s appointment led to a backlash from the Make America Great Again (MAGA) base. Laura Loomer, a MAGA political activist and Internet personality, took issue with it. Vivek Ramaswamy and Musk, the two co-chairs of the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) rode out to Krishnan’s defense. So did former PayPal executive David Sacks, whom Trump has tapped to be White House AI and cryptocurrency tsar. The war of words played out on X, the new bastion of free speech.

The MAGA crowd argues that the tech industry imports Indian workers because they are cheap. These Indians put downward pressure on American wages. Trump’s finance and tech bros, on the other hand, argue that there are not enough Americans to do tech jobs and thus the tech industry needs to bring in foreign workers. This controversy will continue to divide Trump’s camp in the months ahead.

The US will isolate itself

Trump’s tariffs will accelerate the creation of two contending economic systems. Such a situation existed during the Cold War, but since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the global economy has become more integrated than ever. However, the American and Chinese economies have now grown increasingly separate from each other. This trend will accelerate.

Importantly, US global leadership will weaken. Trump will pursue unilateralist, isolationist and contentious policies. So, we will see increased fraying of international norms and weakening of US alliances in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

[Anton Schauble and Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

Comment

0 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

FO° Talks: Josef Olmert on Syria, Part 4: Iran’s Shia Crescent

March 31, 2025

FO° Talks: Trump, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War: A Swiss View on the New World in 2025

March 30, 2025

FO° Talks: Josef Olmert on Syria, Part 3: Turkey and the Kurdish Issue

March 29, 2025

FO° Talks: Josef Olmert on Syria, Part 2: Ethnic Groups, Factions and Jihadists

March 28, 2025

FO° Talks: Josef Olmert on Syria, Part 1: Historic Context

March 26, 2025

FO° Talks: Can Europe Digest Its Spurned Vassal State?

March 21, 2025

FO° Talks: Donald Trump’s New Bombshells Leave Europe Shellshocked

March 21, 2025

FO° Talks: Every Theory of Constitutional Interpretation Is Wrong

March 19, 2025

FO° Talks: Trump and Co. Sell Europe Up the River. Now What?

March 18, 2025

FO° Exclusive: Global Markets Are Now Extremely Nervous

March 13, 2025

FO° Exclusive: Old Ghosts Come Roaring Back in New Germany

March 06, 2025

FO° Exclusive: The New US–Russia–Ukraine–Europe Soap Opera

March 04, 2025

FO° Exclusive: A More Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous World in 2025

March 01, 2025

FO° Talks: Sudan, a Regional Intractable Conflict

FO° Talks: A Reform UK Perspective on British Politics

February 19, 2025

FO° Exclusive: Chinese AI Startup DeepSeek Sparks Global Frenzy

February 14, 2025

FO° Exclusive: Donald Trump Launches an Explosive Imperial Presidency

February 10, 2025

FO° Talks: US Immigration Policy Under Donald Trump 2.0

February 09, 2025

FO° Exclusive: Europe Faces a Tough Year Ahead

February 08, 2025

FO° Exclusive: Unstable Africa Drives Refugees North

February 06, 2025

 

Fair Observer, 461 Harbor Blvd, Belmont, CA 94002, USA