Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, analyze a month of profound global instability and change. They examine how intense political polarization in the US and an increasingly opportunistic American foreign policy are tearing down the postwar order already under threat from multiple crises.

American political turmoil and polarization

The US domestic landscape was marked by “high drama”. Events included the death of former Vice President Dick Cheney and the continuing saga of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. Political infighting escalated dramatically as Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene announced her resignation, claiming she was cast aside by “MAGA Inc.” and replaced by neocons, big pharma, big tech, the military-industrial war complex, foreign leaders and an elite donor class incapable of relating to “real Americans”.

Despite Democrats securing election victories in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, political unity remained elusive. Zohran Mamdani, whom Atul describes as a “Monsieur Bling Bling” with “nice rings and handbands,” won the mayoral election in New York City. His victory speech included a quote from Jawaharlal Nehru and was followed by “brash Bollywood music,” specifically the song Dhoom Machale, which means rock the party or cause an explosion.

Mamdani later flew for a photo opportunity with President Donald Trump, reflecting what Atul characterizes as more political theater in what Chief Strategy Officer Peter Isackson would call a “hyperreal world.”

Not only are Democrats fighting Republicans, but they are fighting their own party members as well. Despite state victories, some Democrats voted alongside Republicans to terminate the government shutdown. The left also wants to get rid of Chuck Schumer in the Senate. Atul describes how emotions were running so high that some individuals at the National Press Club wished “disease and suffering” upon Schumer. Centrist Democrats think the left has “lost the plot,” illustrating “civil wars within civil wars” in America today.

As Glenn says, the US is currently more polarized than at any time since the Civil War 150 years ago. The overall political environment in Washington, DC, as Atul characterizes it, is the most toxic since at least 2008 or 2010, when he first came to the city. He notes that polarization has always been present, but its intensity today is new.

However, Glenn raises a counterpoint suggesting that intense political labeling, while seemingly new, has historical continuity. His father was denounced as a communist for advocating for adding fluoride to the water 60 or 70 years ago to prevent tooth cavities in children. Today. Glenn and his colleagues have been pilloried as champions of “communist electricity” for suggesting that windmills could provide electricity for a power grid.

Power plays abroad: intervention, drugs and shifting alliances

Against the backdrop of domestic strife, military action against Venezuela might provide the “uniting glue”. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest warship, arrived in Latin American waters to purportedly combat drug smuggling. This deployment denudes US strength in the Middle East and Eastern Asia. Rumors are rife in Washington, DC, regarding Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s desire to get rid of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela’s neighbor, Colombia, is not happy. The Trump administration revoked Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s visa after he gave a rather punchy speech at the UN and then addressed protesting against the Israel-Hamas War. Now, Colombia — a historically loyal US ally — has stopped intelligence sharing with the US.

Glenn describes the deployment of the aircraft carrier as an example of “supply side counter narcotics policy.” This is a primarily Republican policy spanning 60 years that focuses on stopping drug suppliers that has largely failed. Conversely, the demand-side approach, often favored by Democrats, argues that supply will inevitably exist as long as demand exists. Narcotics will keep coming to America because of the law of drug trade, which is really the “law of economics and human nature.” Glenn quotes a senior military official involved in counternarcotics efforts who noted that all governmental efforts since the early 1970s “War on Drugs” have failed to change the street price of any drug in America, asserting that stopping drug smuggling is “functionally impossible”.

Across the pond in Britain, the British Broadcasting Company (BBC) faces major trouble after its Director General had to resign. The “Beeb” (as the BBC is informally called) was accused of stitching together two parts of Trump’s January 6, 2021, speech, allegedly creating a false impression of his remarks before the US Capitol storming. Critics frequently accuse the organization of being left-wing. Trump has threatened to sue the “woke BBC” for $1 billion.

Between threatening to sue the BBC, Trump hosted a series of high-profile, controversial foreign guests. Syrian President Abu Muhammad Al Jolani (now Ahmed al-Sharaa) visited the White House, exchanging his battle fatigues for a suit. Trump gave Jolani some perfume, which Atul says made for “excellent television”.

Trump also hosted the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS). Trump complimented MBS and strongly defended him against an “impertinent journalist” who raised the subject of the strangling and chopping up of Jamal Khashoggi. Trump called ABC News “fake news” and said that the reporter was “wrong” for “embarrassing a guest of America” for a “controversial and unlikable” journalist. He then defended MBS, saying he has done great work and made substantial investments in the US. Business tycoon Elon Musk (seeking billions from MBS) and Portuguese football player Cristiano Ronaldo (receiving millions from MBS to play in Saudi Arabia) attended the dinner Trump hosted for MBS.

Another guest, Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, secured an opt-out from America’s sanctions on Russian oil. Orban, whom Atul describes as “canny and clever and cunning”, managed this deal despite Hungary’s reliance on Russian energy imports. In exchange, Hungary agreed to increase its purchases of American liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Instability on the rise: global flashpoints and economic deals

Close to Hungary, in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (the “Sultan,” as Atul refers to him) saw prosecutors seek a prison sentence of up to 2,352 years for Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Mayor of Istanbul and Erdoğan’s key political challenger. Imamoglu is currently detained on alleged corruption charges. Turkey is going “hot turkey if not cold turkey on the idea of democracy”.

Bombs went off in both Delhi and Islamabad. In Bangladesh, a court sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death. In India, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won elections in Bihar. Critics say that the transfer of 10,000 rupees (about 15% of the per capita income) to every woman’s bank account helped. One could argue that the BJP literally bought the election and that India now has competitive populism with different parties competing to offer freebies to voters.

In Africa, jihadists are “on the ascendant.” In Mali, they blockaded the capital, Bamako, and executed a social media influencer. Armed bandits also abducted over 300 students and a dozen teachers from St. Mary’s private Catholic school in Nigeria.

Finally, the Trump administration reached a framework trade agreement with Switzerland. Tariffs on Swiss imports were reduced from 39% to 15%. Swiss companies are to invest $200 billion in the US, including $50 billion from Roche and $23 billion from Novartis. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer claims the deal would help the US reduce deficits in pharmaceuticals and other vital sectors. Despite this economic success, the Swiss Economy Minister, Guy Parmelin, was accused of “selling the Swiss soul to the devil,” a charge he denies.

[Kaitlyn Diana edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.