• World
    • Africa
    • Asia Pacific
    • Central & South Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America & Caribbean
    • Middle East & North Africa
    • North America
  • Coronavirus
  • Politics
    • US Election
    • US politics
    • Donald Trump
    • Brexit
    • European Union
    • India
    • Arab world
  • Economics
    • Finance
    • Eurozone
    • International Trade
  • Business
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Startups
    • Technology
  • Culture
    • Entertainment
    • Music
    • Film
    • Books
    • Travel
  • Environment
    • Climate change
    • Smart cities
    • Green Economy
  • Global Change
    • Education
    • Refugee Crisis
    • International Aid
    • Human Rights
  • International Security
    • ISIS
    • War on Terror
    • North Korea
    • Nuclear Weapons
  • Science
    • Health
  • 360 °
  • The Interview
  • In-Depth
  • Insight
  • Quick Read
  • Video
  • Podcasts
  • Interactive
  • My Voice
  • About
  • FO Store
Sections
  • World
  • Coronavirus
  • US Election
  • Politics
  • Economics
  • Business
  • Culture
  • Sign Up
  • Login
  • Publish

Make Sense of the world

Unique insight from 2,000+ contributors in 80+ Countries

Close

Russia Lurks in the Background as Dayton Dies

By Nathan Dabrowski • Oct 23, 2015
Sarajevo, Bosnia

© Shutterstock

An upcoming referendum threatens the unity of the Dayton Accords on the 20th anniversary.

Dayton was “a superb agreement to end a war but a very bad agreement to make a state.” This is how former High Representative to Bosnia Paddy Ashdown described the Dayton Accords that brought peace to Bosnia in 1995.

It is a sentiment with which many would agree and a situation that Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska (RS) and Dayton’s biggest critic, is seeking to change through a referendum. This threatens to set RS and the West on a collision course, with Russia, as ever, lurking in the background, looking to pick up the pieces and ruffle more feathers on the borders of the European Union.

The 1991 breakup of Yugoslavia resulted in Europe’s worst conflict since World War II in Bosnia and Herzegovina due to the competing territorial claims of its Orthodox Christian Serb, Muslim Bosniak and Catholic Croat populations. Serbian atrocities in Srebrenica and Markale, which precipitated the joint United Nations-NATO intervention, brought the opposing sides to the negotiation table after some 100,000 lives had been lost and 2.2 million people displaced.

A conference center in Dayton, Ohio, was chosen by negotiators as a suitably innocuous location in which to hold the peace talks. So dazzling was the complexity of the resulting agreement, however, that it is difficult to say whether it was a masterstroke of diplomacy or an exercise in sheer folly.

A helpful way of looking at the Dayton Agreement is to imagine a patient who has suffered severe body trauma lying in a hospital bed. This patient needs to be held in traction with the aid of an elaborate system of support and girdles in such a way that it keeps the broken body in a unified state, but without any of their limbs actually touching each other.

Striving for Autonomy

Such is the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina as prescribed by the Dayton Accords. The country is divided into two entities: the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has a Bosniak and Croat majority. Serving as something of a buffer zone between these two is the self-governing administrative unit of Brčko.

Each entity has its own court system, including a supreme court, but overlaid on top of this is a national supreme court—a super-supreme court if you will—called the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has jurisdiction over both RS and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. There is also the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is charged with prosecuting war crimes going back to the Bosnian War.

Dayton

© Shutterstock

It is the supremacy of the court and the Prosecutor’s Office over the courts of Republika Srpska that Dodik wants to put before a referendum slated for November 15. On the day, Bosnian Serbs will be asked to vote on whether they support the “anti-constitutional and unauthorized laws imposed by the High Representative of the international community, especially the laws imposed relating to the Court and the Prosecutor’s office of Bosnia and Herzegovina.” A no vote in November would add a veil of democratic legitimacy to Dodik’s desire to free RS from the oversight of the court, which he accuses of trammeling on the jurisdiction of RS’ courts, and the Prosecutor’s Office, which he claims disproportionately targets Serbs in its war crime investigations while letting Bosniak and Croat offenders off lightly.

More broadly, the referendum is in keeping with Dodik’s mission to break—or loosen, as much as possible—the ties that bind RS to the Bosnian state. Such a rupture, however, would be in violation of the Dayton Agreement due to the precarious position this would leave the Bosniak and Croat minorities in an independent, Serb-dominated state.

On previous occasions in 2008 and 2011, Dodik has proposed holding referendums on the legitimacy of the national court, only to bow to pressure from Brussels to take it off the table or risk having it annulled by the Peace Implementation Council (PIC)—an international body tasked with overseeing the implementation of the Dayton agreement. The PIC, composed of representatives from 55 countries and agencies, and headed by the high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, has the power to strike down legislation deemed to contravene Dayton, and it can even remove the heads of office if they threaten the terms of the agreement.

A Subtle Message

However, this time around, Dodik and his vice president, Emil Vlajki, are talking tough. Adamant that the referendum will go ahead, they seem intent on testing the resolve of the PIC to follow through on its threats to annul the vote.

What has emboldened Dodik to stand up to the PIC and risk his political future?

It seems he has spied an opportunity to make RS a willing pawn in the power play between the West and Russia that has broken out since last time he threatened a referendum. Seeing how Moscow has capitalized on disunity in the West to annex Crimea and stoke separatism in eastern Ukraine, Dodik and his supporters have found just the kind of ally they need in the form of newly belligerent Moscow.

Indeed, on the very same day the referendum was held in Crimea and resulted in its annexation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Dodik in Bosnia, sending a strong, yet subtle, message that Russia will stand behind the Serbian republic’s cause just as fully as it has that of separatist Ukraine.

For RS, Russia may be seen as the big brother coming to save their orthodox religious kinfolk from Western bullying, whereas for Moscow, Bosnia may be just another theater in which to tie down Western diplomatic resources.

But be that as it may, both sides get what they want from the relationship: Dodik the support he needs in his efforts to undermine Dayton, and Russian President Vladimir Putin another bargaining chip in his stand-off with the West. Perhaps nothing as significant as eastern Ukraine or Syria, but a reminder all the same that Russia is willing to stand up for its interests—right up to Europe’s border.

For the Dayton Accords, the upcoming 20th anniversary may very well be the last.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

Photo Credit: Katherine Welles / Northfoto / Shutterstock.com


Fair Observer - World News, Politics, Economics, Business and CultureWe bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your donation is tax-deductible. Join over 400 people to become a donor or you could choose to be a sponsor.

Share Story
CategoriesEurope, Opinion, Politics TagsDayton Accords, Milorad Dodik, Republika Srpska, Russia, Ukraine
Join our network of more than 2,000 contributors to publish your perspective, share your story and shape the global conversation. Become a Fair Observer and help us make sense of the world.

Post navigation

Previous PostPrevious Honoring the Legacy of Benghazi’s Fallen Heroes
Next PostNext Albino Children Hunted for Good Luck in Pre-Election Tanzania
Subscribe
Register for $9.99 per month and become a member today.
Publish
Join our community of more than 2,500 contributors to publish your perspective, share your narrative and shape the global discourse.
Donate
We bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your donation is tax-deductible.

Explore

  • About
  • Authors
  • FO Store
  • FAQs
  • Republish
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • Contact

Regions

  • Africa
  • Asia Pacific
  • Central & South Asia
  • Europe
  • Latin America & Caribbean
  • Middle East & North Africa
  • North America

Topics

  • Politics
  • Economics
  • Business
  • Culture
  • Environment
  • Global Change
  • International Security
  • Science

Sections

  • 360°
  • The Interview
  • In-Depth
  • Insight
  • Quick Read
  • Video
  • Podcasts
  • Interactive
  • My Voice

Daily Dispatch


© Fair Observer All rights reserved
We Need Your Consent
We use cookies to give you the best possible experience. Learn more about how we use cookies or edit your cookie preferences. Privacy Policy. My Options I Accept
Privacy & Cookies Policy

Edit Cookie Preferences

The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.

As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media.

 
Necessary
Always Enabled

These cookies essential for the website to function.

Analytics

These cookies track our website’s performance and also help us to continuously improve the experience we provide to you.

Performance
Uncategorized

This cookie consists of the word “yes” to enable us to remember your acceptance of the site cookie notification, and prevents it from displaying to you in future.

Preferences
Save & Accept