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Back to Venezuela for now. This American operation lays down a marker of geopolitical security for all countries. It is clear that the US is the undisputed military top dog in the world. No other country could have pulled off an operation as spectacular as the Americans did in Venezuela. If the Americans can pick up a head of state from his home, no enemy of the US is safe. Even state sovereignty is no longer a defense against the long arm of the mighty American military.

Some analysts point to Panama as a precedent for Venezuela. In 1989, Americans conducted a full-scale invasion involving 27,000 troops. They picked up Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega and tried him on American soil. Like Maduro, Noriega was accused of drug-related offenses. Yet there are important differences. Panama is a tiny country and its army had merely 4,000 combat-ready troops. In contrast, Venezuela has more than 100,000 troops. Also, Noriega escaped capture and fled to the Vatican embassy. The US military blasted heavy metal and rock music round the clock for ten days, forcing Noriega to surrender. Unlike the 1989 capture of Noriega, American forces picked up Maduro in a smooth one-night operation with no fatalities. We are now in a brave new world where no one really knows what comes next.

I spent the end of 2025 reading the National Security Strategy of the United States of America with much interest. The section titled, “What Do We Want In and From the World?” in the White House document clearly states the US “will assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the  Monroe Doctrine.” The attack on Venezuela proves that the Trump Corollary or the newly popular “Donroe Doctrine” is in full sway.

The success of the Venezuela military operation shows not only American military might but also the failure of the 1998 Bolivarian Revolution of Hugo Chávez. He inaugurated Chavismo, a left-wing populist authoritarianism that worked somewhat well initially but ultimately reduced the country to ruin. Nearly eight million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2015. Economic collapse caused hunger and malnutrition. The infamous “Maduro diet” led to 74.3% of the population losing an average of 8.7 kilograms (19 pounds) per person. Even some of the most ideological leftists stopped being apologists for Chavismo and his successor Maduro’s regime.

Venezuela is not the only state that is malfunctioning. FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, and I spoke about such states around the world. Some states are flailing, some are failing and some are fracturing. In a world where the rules-based order is passé, these states can expect more outside interference and internal strife. Sovereignty is no longer of the utmost importance and presidents in their fortified mansions are fair game.

Our sources from the military and intelligence world say that the American operation could not have succeeded in Venezuela without local collaboration. Some posit that Delcy Rodríguez, the lady who has taken over from Maduro, might have sold her boss for the proverbial pieces of silver. Although it is Venezuela’s Supreme Court that ordered Rodríguez to assume the powers of acting president. 

FOI Geopolitical Risk Monitor December 2025 pointed out that something was about to happen in Venezuela. After all, the Trump administration had offered a reward of up to $50 million for information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of Maduro. From legislation proposing incentivizing mercenaries to target Maduro to the US Treasury sanctioning him as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist on July 25, 2025, the Trump administration was tightening the screws on the former Venezuelan president. Now, Maduro is in New York and the Chavist regime back home is in crisis.

The monitor also pointed out that Greenland was on the American wishlist. Trump has said the US “has to have” Greenland because this territory is essential for American national security. This vast territory with rich resources has merely 57,000 people. A million dollars for each of them might get them to vote to join the US in a referendum. Obviously, Denmark would not be pleased and NATO would die. In recent years, Denmark has been decent to Greenlanders but it is now flailing in the face of American might.

Numerous other states are flailing. Some like Pakistan and Bangladesh are failing. Others like Syria and Sudan are fracturing. At the heart of the matter is the issue of states themselves. Most states that exist today are a result of arbitrary lines on the map by imperialists of yore. Mr. Sykes and Monsieur Picot divvied up the carcass of the Ottoman Empire to create the modern-day Middle East. Numerous minorities were trapped in authoritarian states and kept quiet through pure terror.

It is clear that the world of yesterday has fallen apart. One way forward is to lament the demise of a wonderful three decades of globalization and economic growth. Another way forward is to admit that the world of yesterday was not wonderful for everyone and things, to paraphrase a dead Irish poet, inevitably fall apart.

It is our job now to be brave and build the world again. The shape of the world to come will not be the same as the old. Already, even as I write this, publications around the world are using AI to generate content on the consequences of the fall of Maduro. In this brave new world of smash and grab for resources, technology will destroy millions of white collar jobs. Inequality is likely to increase further and democracy itself is threatened because too many people live in too many social media parallel universes.

A century and more ago, Vladimir Lenin wrote What Is To Be Done? His vision of utopia turned out to be a nightmare forged by Uncle Joseph Stalin. The way forward cannot be dogma. It can only be discourse. However, we cannot have empty discourse or analysis paralysis. Ultimately, we have to learn how to agree, disagree, agree to disagree, and figure out how to act to solve common problems. Ultimately, we have to have courage to follow through on our convictions.

At Fair Observer, we are playing the part of the Fourth Estate. In fact, we are democratizing the Fourth Estate to include you. We want you to comment, write for us, interview with us and shape the global discussion. Democracy is difficult. It needs effort and engagement. It needs you.

Together, we will forge something meaningful in what promises to be a difficult year. I wish you, your family and friends much strength for the coming 12 months ahead. 

Meanwhile, please write to us with your ideas and I very much look forward to engaging with you.