Greetings from the San Francisco Bay Area, where Casey is taking the lead for this edition of our Sunday newsletter. Nick and Roberta are supporting him from Washington, DC, and Geneva, Switzerland, respectively.

Let’s fly to Africa this week. As you know well, the world is way larger than the USA or even the EU. Think of Egypt, and let’s follow the Nile with all its stories and myths.

For millennia, the Nile has been the unshakeable constant of Northeast Africa, its flow and ebb dictating the rise and fall of civilizations. Today, a modern marvel of concrete and ambition is challenging that ancient rhythm. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is more than a source of electricity and national pride for Ethiopia; it is the focal point of a high-stakes struggle over who controls the future of a river that sustains hundreds of millions, highlighting how water scarcity can fuel tensions with global repercussions.

The Great Renaissance Dam, Benishangul-Gumuz, Ethiopia, via Shutterstock

Just last week, the GERD officially opened, completing a nearly 15-year project. The government says the dam will provide a steady stream of irrigation and electricity to the surrounding area. It is being touted as a source of great national pride for Ethiopia. But underneath the exuberant opening hides the undercurrent of international rivalries and reminders of Ethiopia’s own troubled past.

Despite construction beginning only a decade ago, the GERD has a century-long history. Beginning as an idea dreamed up by British and Italian colonial powers, the dam was nearly constructed in the 1950s under Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie. However, the USA, a major funder of the project, backed out due to Cold War tensions with Egypt that was then backed by the USSR. The project remained as little more than a thought until 2011, when the Ethiopian government began construction in earnest.

Source: From Haile Selassie to crowdfunding, how Ethiopia’s GERD dam was born | Energy News | Al Jazeera

The project was delayed by Ethiopian internal politics, as the prime minister who started it, Meles Zenawi, was part of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and died a year into construction. When the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, took charge in 2018, he reported that the project was mired in corruption. There were several high-profile arrests, and the chief engineer was found dead, ruled a suicide by the police. The Tigray War further delayed the project.

Sources: 

Tigray People’s Liberation Front | Ethiopian organization | Britannica

From Haile Selassie to crowdfunding, how Ethiopia’s GERD dam was born | Energy News | Al Jazeera

Tigray war | Wikipedia

Furthermore, reports indicate roughly 20,000 people have been displaced by the dam’s construction, mostly from the Gumuz people, a minority in Ethiopia. The Gumuz, like many other minority groups in Ethiopia, have a history of conflict with the central government in Addis Ababa regardless of the many shapes it has taken over the centuries. Note that Ethiopia is no stranger to resettling its citizens, most famously during the 1980s military dictatorship.

Sources: 

Resettlement of Gumuz communities around Ethiopia’s Blue Nile dam | University of Manchester

Resettlement and villagization in Ethiopia | Wikipedia

Ethiopia’s Forced Resettlement Program: More Hunger Ahead | CIA. gov

This has left many infuriated. As of 2019, resettled people have faced numerous challenges: inadequate sustainable sources of water, poor land distribution, a lack of promised compensation, allegations of embezzlement and general poor planning by officials. While many officials are aware of these problems, the government has not been able to solve them and the tension remains.

At full operation, the dam’s power generation capacity is 5,150 megawatts, making it one of the 20 largest hydroelectric dams in the world. For context, the Hoover Dam in the US has the capacity for roughly 2,040 megawatts. Ahmed says the GERD will provide power for Ethiopians in the immediate area and beyond. This would be enough to supply power to tens of millions of people. The GERD’s power generation is clearly valuable given the latest estimates by the World Bank per which only 55% of Ethiopians have regular access to electricity.

Sources:

Ethiopia opens Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam to Egyptian protest | CNN

Hoover Dam FAQ | US Bureau of Reclamation

Access to electricity (% of population) – Ethiopia | World Bank Group

Perhaps even more importantly, the GERD is seen as a source of national pride in Ethiopia. The construction was funded in large part by the Ethiopian government itself. In addition, citizens sent in donations and purchased bonds to complete the project. Local media reports that of the $5 billion required to construct the dam, 9%, or $450 million, came from Ethiopians making such contributions. Reportedly, Ethiopia borrowed $1 billion from Chinese banks for the equipment to construct the GERD. Despite borrowing Chinese money, Ethiopia is said to retain full control over the dam and its resources.

As in many other megaprojects, there have been reports of workers dying during the many years of dam construction. Estimates put the figure as high as 15,000 people. Water and Energy Minister Habtamu Itefa neither confirms nor denies the figure. Other members of the building team say the true death toll was less than 100 people over 14 years.

Additional sources: 

The pride of Ethiopia – What it took to build Africa’s largest hydro-electric dam | BBC

Ethiopia opens Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam to Egyptian protest | CNN

Deaths, dollars, disputes: Ethiopia’s GERD mega dam | DW

Claims About 15,000 Killed During  GERD Construction Tigger’s Doubt | Borkena

The controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam | Brookings Institution

International decision not to finance Ethiopia’s dam | Al-Arabiya Arabic | Horn Affairs

The dam’s reservoir takes up an area larger than Greater London: 606 square miles, holding a truly staggering amount of water to keep the dam’s water flow steady. But in addition to displacing thousands of people, this reservoir brings its share of environmental concerns.

Some argue that in an increasingly warming world, investing in hydroelectricity can negatively affect the environment. Dead vegetation underneath water reservoirs releases methane, a gas even more polluting than carbon dioxide. Furthermore, dams around the world already face dangerously low water levels in their reservoirs, which are vital to their power generation. Finally, the Ethiopian government reportedly failed to conduct an environmental impact assessment, potentially adding more unintended consequences to the mix.

Source:

Hydropower Won’t Stop the Climate Crisis—It Might Make It Worse | The Nation

Neighboring states and people also need water

Since 2020, Ethiopia has been filling the reservoir in phases, operating carefully during the rainy season to avoid downstream effects. Egypt remains unhappy with the project and fears that the dam will interfere with the flow of the Nile, which supplies up to 90% of the country’s fresh water. Sudan has similar concerns, as it also heavily depends on the Nile for its water.

While initially worried about water disruptions, Egypt and neighboring Sudan seem more concerned about how the dam could affect power dynamics within the region. Specifically, Cairo fears that if Ethiopia experiences a dry period, Addis Ababa might slow the flow of water, which would be catastrophic for everyone downstream. These fears are only amplified by rising populations and the looming specter of climate change affecting the weather in the region.

All three countries have been negotiating for the past decade and have yet to agree to a deal despite multiple rounds of diplomatic talks. Now that the dam is complete and fully operational, it is uncertain how exactly the three countries’ relationship will evolve, especially with Sudan in the middle of a bloody civil war.

Sources:

ECI Researcher explains why Ethiopia’s new hydroelectric dam is so contentious | Environmental Change Institute

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can generate sustainable hydropower while minimizing downstream water deficit during prolonged droughts | Communications Earth & Environment

Sudanese civil war (2023–present) | Wikipedia

We at Fair Observer chose this topic this week because Ethiopia and other African countries don’t get much coverage or attention in international news, outside of reports of war and conflict. As this is a very important story for the developing nation, it is only fair to give it some time in the sun. More pertinently, the GERD is unfortunately a possible source of a new war in the region.

The situation seems stable — for now. The Nile’s waters seem relatively unchanged downstream after the GERD’s construction, so immediate and desperate action from Egypt and Sudan seems unlikely. This uncomfortable stalemate between the three countries will likely remain for the foreseeable future, so long as the rain keeps falling in Ethiopia.

But if weather patterns shift, something occurring around the world thanks to climate change, the situation may deteriorate rapidly. The Nile is Egypt’s lifeline, and the military regime in Cairo has reportedly already considered attacking and destroying the GERD. As the climate grows more catastrophic, with a deadly civil war already raging in Sudan for the past two years, more water and blood may yet flow down the Nile.

Source:

The Global Intelligence Files: Re: Egypt source | Wikileaks

The GERD turbines now generate uncertainty in addition to electricity in a part of the world that is under great stress. This dam captures the complicated human condition: It is at the same time a monument to human ingenuity, but also a testament and generator of intractable environmental and political conflicts. We can admire the GERD greatly and yet ask, as we should with every marvel of ingenuity or technology, if we should trust it blindly or think about the fallout of these pharaonic creations. Could it be that they sometimes generate more problems than they solve?