Greetings from California, and no, not even on high heels on a high rise can we see Japan across the Pacific… 

China and Japan’s relationship has always been somewhat tumultuous, but in recent months, both countries have escalated from underlying tension to outright hostility in a few short weeks. The conflict was sparked by comments from newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding the defense of Taiwan, a historically sore subject for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This has led to travel warnings and other harsh economic jabs directed at Japan.

This sabre-rattling is somewhat expected. Takaichi is much more nationalistic than many previous Japanese leaders, even in her own right-wing party, and is responding to growing feelings of isolationism within Japan. More importantly, Japan’s shift reflects a broader global trend of hostility between nations that appears to be on the rise in the past few years.

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China and Japan’s current enmity has roots that go back to World War II, when the two nations’ modern trajectories were shaped. First in 1931, and then again in 1937, Japan invaded China, intent on conquering a nation that had been shattered by nearly a hundred years of political coups, European domination and civil war, known as “the century of humiliation”.

For nearly a decade, horrific fighting ravaged China with death tolls in the millions on both sides, to say nothing of other nations Japan invaded. This also led to a near-industrial system of rape within the Japanese army, which would force captured women into prostitution, dubbed “comfort women”.

This piece of history in particular is the source of quite a bit of resentment between the two nations, as the Japanese government has never officially acknowledged the full scope of this, and right-wing nationalists are quick to deny it ever happened. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history, went so far as to petition the UN to revise its report on the matter in 2014.

Sources:

Second Sino-Japanese War | Summary, Combatants, Facts, & Map | Britannica

Comfort women | Definition, History, & Facts | Britannica

Century of humiliation | Wikipedia

From China’s perspective, Taiwan has been a prickly subject for nearly 80 years now. After the communists defeated the nationalists in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and his forces retreated to the island. As the Cold War was beginning and the nation was still reeling from generations of chaos, the CCP could not pursue further conflict.

As such, an uneasy peace settled between the two governments, both claiming to be the rightful rulers of Taiwan and China as a whole, a battle the CCP has been slowly winning due to economic pressure. It is to the point where only 12 nations recognize Taiwan as an independent nation. This limited recognition is something mainland China is keen to enforce.

The island of Taiwan had a history as a Chinese province before being lost to Japan in 1895, and China considers the island rightfully theirs. This has led to a complicated diplomatic situation, one that China has been keen to press on more forcefully in recent years, to the point where it has routinely sent fighter jets to buzz Taiwanese airspace. This has naturally led to rising tensions, not helped by the memory of Hong Kong’s absorption by China after massive protests in 2019.

Sources:

China and Taiwan: A really simple guide | BBC

Taiwan | History, Flag, Map, Capital, Population, & Facts | Britannica

The maps that show how China’s military is squeezing Taiwan | The Guardian

Battle for history: China’s WWII anniversary rekindles legacy debate | NPR

2019–2020 Hong Kong protests | Wikipedia

Finally, Takaichi became Prime Minister on October 21, 2025, the first woman elected to the position in Japan’s history. She admires British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and like Thatcher, Takaichi is a fierce conservative with a nationalist bent.

She is also the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics, being in power with almost no interruption since 1955. This coincided with a shift to the right in Japanese politics, owing to a host of factors, including the LDP’s previous failings and the chaos left in the wake of Abe’s assassination in 2022.

Source:

Japan’s ruling party is in crisis as dissatisfied voters swing to right-wing rivals | CNN

On November 7, Takaichi responded to a question about Taiwan during a cabinet meeting, saying that an attack on Taiwan could provoke a mobilization of the Japanese military, something no previous prime minister had ever openly suggested. China responded sharply, with Consul General to Japan Xue Jan going so far as to tweet “the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off”.

China spat with Japan on Taiwan deepens, reaches UN: What’s it all about? | Al Jazeera

China–Japan relations | Wikipedia

What to know about China and Japan’s escalating spat over Taiwan | BBC

Japan’s ruling party elects Sanae Takaichi as leader, likely to become first female PM | NPR

From Partners to Rivals: Why China-Japan Relations Are Spiraling | Modern Diplomacy

Things escalated from there, with both sides demanding apologies and retractions, and neither country willing to give an inch. China halted Japanese film releases, issued a travel advisory and recommended Chinese students seek education opportunities elsewhere.

More dramatically, the CCP has halted a number of Japanese singers’ tours in China, with one performer having their lights and sound cut mid-song, and another performing to a stadium of 14,000 empty seats. Finally, Chinese and Japanese coast guards faced off near diplomatically disputed islands in the first suggestion of military conflict. 

Sources:

Anime event in Shanghai canceled after singer’s show interrupted | The Japan Times

Japan movie releases postponed in China after Taiwan row | BBC

Japan tourism and retail stocks slide after row with China over Taiwan | BBC

Chinese and Japanese boats face off near disputed islands as feud worsens | BBC

Japanese fandom is having a moment in China – and not in a good way | CNN

China halts Japanese cultural events after tensions rise over Taiwan remarks | ABC News

These economic strikes have the potential to spell disaster for the island nation. Japan’s economy is more dependent on China than the other way around, and experts are already warning that this current fight is having dire consequences. But through it all, Japan has refused to back down. Aside from Takaichi’s nationalism and the history of diplomatic tension between the two nations, Japan is likely reminded of other, similar conflicts playing out around the world.

The US’s sudden tariffs on nearly all foreign goods are the most obvious example, but the still ongoing Russia–Ukraine War is also a matter of some consideration. The comparison of a much larger nation attacking a smaller one over decades-old history is undoubtedly not lost on Tokyo.

Will this defiance by Takaichi produce a strong enough “rally around the flag” effect to weather the oncoming economic storm, or will Japan fold in the wake of China’s sanctions? Like with all things these days, the future is unclear. For now, this remains another chapter in a gradually warming global climate, with old grudges directing our path to the future.