Greetings from Geneva. Since we visited Cuba last week, let’s sail a little further south this week to Guyana, where on Monday, September 1, 2025, the country heads to the polls for elections.

Guyana is a small country, with fewer than one million people in 2025, sandwiched between Suriname, Venezuela and Brazil, and opening beautifully to the Atlantic Ocean at the mouth of the Demerara River. On its eastern bank lies the capital: Georgetown.

Large aerial shot of Saint Laurent du Maroni, French Guiana rainforest, Shutterstock

Why Guyana is fascinating

Guyana is the only English-speaking nation on the South American mainland, with a population of approximately 794,000 people (Britannica). Historically, it was colonized first by the Dutch in the 17th century and later by the British in the early 19th century, gaining independence in 1966 (Britannica).

Reflecting its colonial past, the country is richly multicultural. Alongside English and Guyanese Creole, Hindi and Amerindian languages are also present in daily life, reflecting the country’s Indian, African and Indigenous heritage.

Shutterstock

Guyana exports crude petroleum, sugar, gold, bauxite, rice, shrimp, rum and timber (Wikipedia). Since ExxonMobil’s oil discovery in 2015, production has surged. By early 2025, output had reached 650,000 barrels per day; by August, it had increased to 900,000 bpd, thanks to Exxon, Chevron and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), with additional projects like Yellowtail coming online (Americas Quarterly).

This boom has made Guyana one of the fastest-growing economies globally and a top per-capita oil producer. But it has also reignited tensions with Venezuela, which claims the oil-rich Essequibo region.

Source: A UN top court orders Venezuela to halt election plans in Guyana | AP News

Interesting facts about Guyana:15 Mind-Blowing Facts About Guyana: The World’s Most Culturally Diverse Country – Travel Documentary Amazing Discoveries, YouTube.

South America Special Three: The Guyana triplets explained

Election 2025: The stakes

On September 1, voters will elect the president, vice president and 65-seat National Assembly.

• President Irfaan Ali (PPP/C) seeks a second term, running on a record of economic growth, infrastructure projects and social programs like free university tuition — funded by oil revenues (Reuters).
• Opposition candidates promise to renegotiate Exxon’s oil contracts, increase transparency and deliver faster wealth-sharing to ordinary Guyanese (Stabroek News).
• A three-way race has emerged with the newcomer WIN party, led by businessman Azruddin Mohamed, drawing crowds but dogged by US sanctions and corruption allegations.

Billions of dollars in projects like Yellowtail, Payara and Uaru — worth over $30 billion — could be affected by the results, depending on whether Guyana sticks with stability or shifts toward renegotiation (Ainvest).

In March 2025, a Venezuelan naval vessel entered Guyanese waters near an ExxonMobil facility, prompting Guyana’s military response and international condemnation of Caracas (The Guardian).

President Nicolás Maduro continues to push Venezuela’s claims over Essequibo, turning the dispute into an election issue in both countries. For Guyana, sovereignty has become a rallying cry in the campaign, with President Ali invoking legal victories and international support to shore up national pride.

Additionally, the election has become a focal point for managing several strategic risks, including geopolitical tension stemming from Venezuela’s claims on the Essequibo region, which houses much of the oil reserves; US strategic interests in the area; and internal concerns about governance quality and corruption. The results could significantly impact ongoing and planned projects — such as Yellowtail, Payara and Uaru — by introducing regulatory uncertainties or shifts in policy direction.

Guyana: Meet the Candidates 2025 – Americas Quarterly

Guyana faces elections amid oil boom, Maduro’s threats – UPI.com

A powerful U.S. naval presence—including guided-missile destroyers, a fast-attack submarine, 4,500 service members, and 2,200 Marines—creates heightened military activity near Venezuela and potentially enters disputed waters surrounding the Essequibo region. While the U.S. frames this as an anti-narcotics operation, the possibility of escalation cannot be discounted. This proximity to sensitive offshore infrastructure demands enhanced security protocols for Guyana-based oil operations and will likely influence elections.

Source: Axios AM

Strategic Stability vs. Operational Uncertainty

On the one hand, strong U.S. naval presence could deter Venezuelan coercion and serve as a buffer for Guyana’s oil infrastructure. On the other, unpredictable military posturing may spook personnel and investors, raise insurance costs, and interrupt operational logistics on oil rigs. Even if no ground conflict is imminent, the “show of force” carries ripple effects—strengthening sovereignty arguments but creating cost and a variety of risks.

Source: Trump’s Venezuela gunboat diplomacy: sabre-rattling or prelude to invasion? | Venezuela – The Guardian

Looking ahead

Guyana stands at a crossroads. With fewer than a million people and vast oil reserves, it could soon become one of the richest nations per capita in the Americas. Yet challenges remain: corruption, inequality, and the looming Venezuelan threat over Essequibo.

The coming years will decide whether Guyana becomes a model of resource-driven development — or another cautionary tale of oil wealth squandered.