Dear FO° Reader,

Greetings from Geneva, I am already missing my dear Alpine village, where I was last week. I passed the Nüfenennpass (2,478 meters above sea level), where the temperature was only 51°F (11°C) and the landscape was shrouded in mist, with mountains brushed by passing clouds. 

Nüfenen Pass 8,130 feet (2,478 meters), Photo by the author

The world feels far away. I just felt like enjoying the landscape and the fresh air, but the local radio was spouting depressing news about Brazil’s rule of law being challenged by US President Donald Trump. Why is this a problem? 

“‘Estou fazendo isso porque posso’, diz Trump sobre tarifas de 50% ao Brasil” (“‘I’m doing this because I can,’ says Trump about 50% tariffs on Brazil”)

Trump declared on July 15 that the tariffs are justified simply because “I’m able to do it … and we want the money to flow into the US.” He emphasized that the aim is to boost American jobs and defend former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, whom he described as “a good man … a respected man.”

Well, Brazilian justice believes otherwise; he was already banned from running for office in 2023 and was officially accused in February 2024. No matter how well his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, can lobby in Washington, DC, Brazilian justice is doing its job. 

Source: Ex-President Bolsonaro banned from running for office again | Agenciabrasil 

Bolsonaro in Sao Paulo, 2022, Shutterstock] 

Why is Bolsonaro on trial? Because he led a Coup Plot — and a few more reasons. If one enters his name into the judicial system, they will find over 4500 lawsuits against him. Many of these are from electoral courts in several municipalities and states, because he tried to impede Lula’s voters from reaching polling stations. There are also lawsuits for racism, discrimination and homophobia/transphobia, which are crimes in Brazil; add to that hate speech, corruption, death threats and so on. Human rights organisations, environmental institutes and other institutions filed these accusations.

Source: Jair Messias Bolsonaro | Jusbrasil

The Federal Police, the Prosecutor-General (PGR) and the Supreme Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal [STF] as known in Brazil) justices have accused Bolsonaro of planning to overturn the 2022 election and remain in power illegally. Those charges state that: 

• He attempted a coup, plotting to disrupt the constitutional transition
• He armed a criminal organization, orchestrating violent strategies with allies.
• He tried to eliminate the democratic rule of law, seeking to dismantle the Supreme Court and Congress.

These accusations stem from gatherings in late 2022 where Bolsonaro and his supporters allegedly discussed using military force and declaring states of emergency to retain power. 

Source: Bolsonaro tried to ‘incite insurrection’, prosecutor tells Brazil top court | Jair Bolsonaro News | Al Jazeera

Inciting the January 8 Insurrection

He’s also charged with inciting insurrection, having encouraged supporters to storm government buildings in Brazil on January 8, 2023.

And Now, Prosecutors Are Seeking a Severe Sentence

In July 2025, PGR submitted final arguments urging the court to convict him for these crimes, highlighting organized violent actions and threats against critical democratic institutions, potentially leading to decades-long imprisonment. 

Protestor in Sao Paulo, “Stop authoritarianism, Brazil now wants justice!” Shutterstock 

Bolsonaro’s Defense? 

He denies the allegations, calling them a “witch hunt.” There, he echoes similar language used by Donald Trump. Bolsonaro claims discussions were constitutional alternatives and not criminal. Notably, Trump has publicly condemned the proceedings as politically motivated. 

Bolsonaro’s trial strikes at the heart of Brazil’s democratic resilience. If convicted, Bolsonaro faces severe penalties and remains barred from office until at least 2030. A guilty verdict could reset political norms in Latin America by affirming the supremacy of democratic rule over authoritarian threats. Conversely, an acquittal might deepen political polarization and sow distrust in judicial mechanisms.

What we now know is that both Bolsonaro and Trump have consistent and powerful support from neo-evangelical groups and churches. 

A Documentary Captures Rise of Evangelical Power, and Explains

Apocalypse in the Tropics by Petra Costa, covered in Time Brasil and widely discussed in Brazilian outlets, shows how evangelical leaders like Silas Malafaia shaped Bolsonaro’s rise and echoed Trump-style populism:

“Apocalyptic messaging … Christian nationalists and fundamentalists … now wield considerable political clout.” 

Petra Costa’s Film Flags Dominionist Ambitions

We learn that much of the funding for the far right comes from churches. The Federal Police are investigating Silas Malafaia, “pastor” who has been a ferocious supporter of Bolsonaro:

Source: Malafaia na mira da PF: origem do dinheiro que financiou ato de Bolsonaro será investigada | Política | cbn

Apocalypse in the Tropics is excellent for explaining the connection. Brazil is supposed to be a secular country with state laicity; this principle is expressed in the First Article of the Brazilian Constitution. In this article, the word “secular” is not explicitly mentioned. Still, it’s clear that “All power emanates from the people, who exercise it by means of elected representatives or directly, as provided by this Constitution,” indicating that there’s no divine intervention. And yet, the neo-evangelicals are now the majority in both the Senate and the Congress.

The Daily Beast reports that Petra’s documentary links Bolsonaro to a “Trump of Brazil” model of religious populism, which calls for arming citizens and inciting actions such as the January 8 storming of symbolic political institutions. This is all backed by evangelical pastors such as Malafaia:

“Bolsonaro hitched his wagon to the Evangelical crusade … Malafaia’s fundamentalism” 

Source: ‘Apocalypse in the Tropics’: Harrowing Doc About Rise of ‘Trump of Brazil’– The Daily Beast.

Silas Malafaia’s Political Endorsements

Brazilian news via Reuters and O Globo highlight Silas Malafaia’s vocal support, labeling Lula’s government as antagonistic to religious freedom and even calling for armed forces intervention in support of Bolsonaro:

He publicly described the Jan 8 storming of government buildings as a people’s “manifestation.” 

And this is not a Brazilian peculiarity alone.  According to a Pew Research Center study cited by UOL’s RFI, 82% of white evangelical Christians in the US backed Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 — and they remain strongly supportive entering the next election. This group forms one of the most powerful voting blocs in American politics. In rural Georgia counties like Rabun, for example, over 78% of votes went to Trump in both elections, due in part to deep-rooted church networks and conservative, anti-abortion culture.

Source: Como em 2016 e 2020, Trump continua a receber apoio maciço dos evangélicos 

Trump Was Not Elected To Be the Emperor of The World, says Lula this week. 

Source: Brazil’s President Lula says Trump was ‘not elected to be emperor of the world,’ as US-Brazil spat escalates | CNN

The verbal skirmishes continue as Trump insists on defending Bolsonaro and threatens to impose very high tariffs. Lula replies with a clear message reminding everyone of the principles of democracy. The White House replies that: 

Trump is “The Leader of The Free World.”

Source: Casa Branca rebate fala de Lula à CNN sobre Trump: “Líder do mundo livre” | CNN Brasil

Political factions in Brazil are shifting quickly. The “Centrão,” a coalition or voting bloc comprising several medium-sized parties and factions, was attempting to relaunch the technique they used against Dilma Rousseff, known as “Pautas-Bomba” or “explosive bills.” These law projects are designed solely to make governing the country impossible. 

The Centrão suddenly voted in favor of increasing the number of congress members from 513 to 531. They also voted to increase government spending in millions of reais. Despite these actions, they still loudly criticize Lula, claiming he should cut social programs instead of raising taxes on the rich. As Centrão owns the majority, the bill passed in both the Congress and the Senate. Lula vetoed it. This happened between Thursday and Friday, at around 3 AM.

Congress voted not only to increase support for the agribusiness it oversees, but also approved the “PEC da Destruição” (Destruction Bill), which dismantles Brazilian environmental laws and practices. Our author and consultant, Karin Schmalz, is paying attention to all this as a scientist and ecologist. She reminds us that these environmental laws and practices are some of the best in the world when applied correctly. There have been many popular petitions against it, with tens of millions of signatures, but Congress voted for the Destruction Bill anyway. It was an act of revenge not only for the veto, but also because the “secret budget” put into place by Bolsonaro is being removed slowly by the Executive and Judiciary.

Source: Senado aprova ampliação da Câmara para 531 deputados a partir de 2027 — Senado Notícias 

For those who are my age, you might remember when Roberto Baggio missed the famous penalty that cost Italy the 1994 World Cup. There’s a whole story in that one missed penalty. Some Brazilian evangelical players and others believed that he missed because god did not support it, as Baggio had recently converted to Buddhism. 

“In 1980, around when Leite set out on his ‘mission’, 88.9% of Brazil’s population identified as Catholics. Evangelicalism — a movement within Protestant Christianity — accounted for 6.6%.” João Leite was a football player in Belo Horizonte. He was a goalkeeper for Atletico Mineiro when he began offering Bibles to other players because the Brazilian Football Association banned him from displaying religious slogans on his shirt. By 2007, there were already 7,000 Athletes of Christ across 60 countries, including Ballon d’Or winner Kaká and former Bayern Munich center-back Lucio.

Source: Evangelicalism & Brazil: The religious movement that spread through a national team – BBC Sport

The Eternal Question: Religion, Politics And … Football

The growing alignment between evangelical movements and authoritarian populism, both in Brazil and the US, raises serious questions about the role of religion in democratic politics. Bolsonaro’s legal troubles are not only a domestic reckoning; they also reveal how cross-border narratives of persecution, nationalism and “moral revival” are leveraged by political actors. 

As Petra Costa’s documentary and recent trials show, the evangelical support for Bolsonaro was neither marginal nor incidental: it was strategic, structured and increasingly transnational. This moment challenges democracies to reflect on how institutional resilience, civic education and secular governance can withstand politically mobilized belief systems that increasingly operate across borders.

Will this be a passing cloud, or one that announces a life-changing storm? At Fair Observer, we will keep an eye, or many eyes, on the ground, on these issues and help you make sense of our world. The only one we have. 

Wishing you a thoughtful week,

Roberta Campani
Communications & Outreach

Related Readings 

	The Secrets Behind Brazil’s Military and the January 8 Insurrection – Fair Observer By Karin Schmalz | November 18, 2023
	Crime, Churches and Corruption: The Case Behind Rio’s Surging Violence By Karin Schmalz | August 06, 2024