I grew up in the Swiss Alps, at the bottom of a valley where the only way out was over high passes like the Gotthard or through narrow gorges like the Stalvedro. Today, trains and highways link us to the rest of Europe. Now, let me open a different kind of portal — not through a mountain tunnel but across the world to the Andes: a far higher, longer chain where Bolivia lies landlocked in the heart of South America.

Nestled between Brazil, Peru, Chile, Argentina and Paraguay, Bolivia is a landlocked country of 12 million people. Its high Andean plateau, the Altiplano, sits at over 3,500 meters above sea level, making it one of the highest inhabited regions on Earth. Rich in natural gas, minerals and lithium, Bolivia has seen cycles of boom and bust, political upheaval and reform.

Life on the high Andean plateau has always been harsh, demanding resilience and deep knowledge of the land. For centuries, people sought refuge there from empires and exploitation — first from the Incas, later from the Europeans who arrived six centuries ago, bringing both “progress” and new forms of domination. That legacy of endurance still shapes Bolivia today.

Huayna Potosí Mountain in the background of brick houses in La Paz, Bolivia. Via Shutterstock

Fast forward a few millennia — about six centuries ago — the Europeans arrived and brought progress along with new forms of exploitation. 

For nearly 20 years, the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) has governed Bolivia, founded by Evo Morales, the country’s first Indigenous president, and rooted in his alliance with the Aymara coca-growers’ movement. Morales’s early years brought economic growth, poverty reduction and greater Indigenous political participation. But his refusal to step down after losing a term-limit referendum in 2016 triggered a political crisis.

And, let’s remember that just a year ago, in June 2024, Bolivia narrowly avoided a descent into authoritarianism when General Juan José Zúñiga led troops and tanks into Plaza Murillo in La Paz, in what quickly ballooned into a full-blown coup attempt. President Luis Arce urgently called on citizens to mobilize in defense of democracy, and thousands rallied in the streets; the military eventually withdrew, and Zúñiga was arrested. The episode underscored both how fragile Bolivian democracy remains and how fiercely the public will defend it. Bolivia, once notorious for military coups, hadn’t seen one in decades and people rallied to oppose military rule.
 

Source: Latin America was famed for coups, but Bolivia shows how it has changed – Financial Times 

Today, MAS is fractured. Morales is barred from running, faces statutory rape allegations of minors (which he denies) and is calling on supporters to void their ballots. His successor, President Luis Arce, was once hailed as the architect of Bolivia’s “economic miracle.” He has now withdrawn from the race after failing to stem an economic collapse marked by double-digit inflation, fuel shortages and a severe dollar crunch.

The opposition, long marginalized under MAS’s rule, sees its best chance in years. Leading contenders include:

• Samuel Doria Medina, a centrist businessman and “eternal candidate,” who is promising to cut subsidies and attract foreign investment.
• Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a conservative former president (2001–2002), advocating for the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-backed austerity and pro-US alignment.
• Andrónico Rodríguez, a former MAS ally now running independently, who is appealing to rural voters with a platform of intelligent austerity.
• Manfred Reyes Villa, a law and order candidate with a focus on decentralizing power.

Polls show no candidate clearing 25%, making a second-round runoff on October 19 likely, a first under Bolivia’s 2009 constitution. 

Bolivian citizens are under an obligation to vote and can only vote in person. According to Sergio Pantoja, with whom Mike Lubrano (a corporate governance guru on our board of advisors) spoke on Thursday, “Tito Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina will have to come to an agreement, because the electoral law in Bolivia establishes that to win in the first round, a candidate must obtain more than 50% of the votes or list a list of the 40% with a ten point lead over the second candidate and the finisher. This scenario is not possible today.” The most important result, though, is that whoever leads Bolivia in the near future will have to restore its economic potential, bring foreign investments and stabilize the work market, which the MAS has failed to do in the past 20 years.

The stakes extend beyond the presidency to control of Congress and the Senate, which will be decided in the first round. Pantoja stresses that defeating MAS is only the first step; the winner must “secure the largest number of seats … to achieve governability” and implement structural reforms. He dismisses the “Plurinational State of Bolivia” as a political slogan that has deepened divisions rather than improved governance. Ultimately, he frames the vote as a historic choice: “Transition to new center-right leadership or remain led by the indigenous left … directly responsible for the crisis.”

A few days earlier, Rohan Khattar Singh, our video producer, spoke with Leonardo Vivas, who explained that these elections should be of interest to the general public for two main reasons: “In the last decades, most of the conflicts in Latin America have been solved through democratic means.” Of course, there are some exceptions, like Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and later even El Salvador. “Otherwise, most of the countries have solved their disputes, which run very deep, democratically.” 

The second reason why we should take an interest in Bolivia is the demise of the MAS, created by Evo Morales at the beginning of the 90s. It was the result of campaigning with the Aymara Indigenous Movement. Its 30 years of hegemony are likely coming to an end with these elections. This will affect the local geopolitics of Latin America. 

A second vuelta (round of elections) on October 19 is therefore almost certain. Bolivians will have to wait to see which government will guide them in the next few years. 

Bolivia’s politics are shifting from identity-based debates to an urgent focus on economic recovery. Young, urban, educated voters, once loyal to MAS, are now demanding stability and jobs. Internationally, the US has largely stepped back, China is cautious after costly missteps with state enterprises elsewhere and, as Leonardo Vivas noted in the video above, “Brazil has said … we are ready to use BRICS as a substitute for the IMF and put together a program for Bolivia to get out of the deep waters.” He also stressed that such an initiative would be unprecedented — “it’s never happened before” — and its feasibility remains unclear.

Additional sources: 

Bolivia’s election may spell the end of its long-ruling left. Here’s what to know – ABC News

Bolivia election: What you need to know | Reuters 

Poll Tracker: Bolivia’s 2025 Presidential Election | AS/COA 

Will the right return to power in Bolivia after 20 years? CAnninghouse

Economic woes dominate as Bolivia prepares to go to the polls, BBC 

Will Evo Morales sink the left’s hopes in Bolivia’s presidential election? | Evo Morales News | Al Jazeera

As Bolivians head to the polls, the outcome will echo far beyond the Andes. At FO°, we believe in keeping these conversations alive, across continents and perspectives. Thank you for being part of this community of readers who care about the world.