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Dear FO° Reader,
Greetings from the Ozarks of Missouri, where one of our editors, Farhang, is taking the lead for this edition of our Sunday newsletter. Casey and Roberta are supporting him from California and Switzerland. And, of course, Nick from Washington, DC. We all know that Iran has been in the news for years, so much so that many of us scroll past it. “It’s just Iran,” we tell ourselves. This time, the story is about a currency that has lost its value, bombs that shook entire neighborhoods and people who have become experts in living under pressure. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, Iran has constantly teetered between international sanctions and the threat of war, as if on a seesaw. This is especially true in the relationship between Iran and the United States. Sanctions: the snapback heard around the world Iran was just hit with one of the largest UN sanction packages in recent history. Think of it as pressing rewind on ten years of fragile diplomacy. The Iranian rial collapsed to its lowest value since 1979. The paper used to print Iran’s money is now worth more than the money itself.
The snapback mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 triggered this storm. These snapback sanctions reinstated all sanctions that were lifted after the 2015 nuclear deal. This was done in response to a significant breach of the nuclear agreement, as the UN argued that Iran has begun enriching uranium again. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the 2015 nuclear deal, capped Iran’s uranium enrichment at 3.6% in exchange for sanction relief. That worked for a while, but failed when the Trump administration withdrew from the deal. Sources: Sanctions reimposed on Iran 10 years after landmark nuclear deal | BBC The Costs of Snapback Sanctions on Iran | World Political Review Iran sanctions snapback: Council reimposes restrictive measures | Council of the EU Europe’s “E3” — the UK, France and Germany — pulled the lever on snapback. They argued that Iran’s violations were too grave to ignore. The US, having already walked away from the JCPOA under Trump in 2018, cheered. Russia and China condemned the move, calling it a political trick rather than a legal procedure. Source: Russia and China Fail to Delay U.N. ‘Snapback’ Sanctions Against Iran | New York Times The sanctions freeze assets. They ban weapons sales. They choke Iran’s ability to trade in oil, banking and technology. In short, they turn the global economy into a fortress with Iran locked outside the gates. Iran seems to be in a sanction cycle. In the 1990s, the 2000s and the years preceding the JCPOA. Sanctions come. Sanctions go. The Iranian regime bends but does not break. The people, however, are the ones crushed under the weight. In fact, countries under the heaviest of sanctions, like North Korea, Cuba and recently Venezuela, have shown that it only weakens the people, which helps the regime tighten control on everything, from social to economic aspects, and survive longer. Also, one could argue that sanctions made Iran’s defense industry more advanced. Forced to produce most goods domestically, the Islamic Republic now sells drones and missiles on the international market. For example, its Shahed-136 drones, priced at about $10,000, help Russia fight in Ukraine. They are cheaper than drones produced anywhere else. One of the reasons for the sanctions is to force Iran to abandon its long-range missiles. It also encouraged Iran to develop one of the largest ballistic missile arsenals in the region and possibly the world. Israel continuously stated that those missiles were a threat to them and would take necessary measures to neutralize them. On multiple occasions, Iran bombed Israel with those missiles. Sources: US imposes new sanctions on Iran after UN ‘snapback’ measures restored – Middle East Monitor The Iran-Israel War
The United States, Israel and some NATO members preferred sanctions to put a stop to Iran’s nuclear program. However, sanctions did not stop Iran. Also, for a very long time, policymakers debated military options against Iran. Tehran and Washington have come close to a military confrontation on numerous occasions. Washington bombed Iranian-backed militia while Tehran retaliated by bombing US bases and allies across the region. But they never entered a prolonged military confrontation and preferred a tit-for-tat engagement. However, in July 2025, Israel launched one of its most audacious military strikes in years that later brought Washington into the war. Israeli air force targeted Iranian military infrastructure, suspected nuclear sites and top military commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Israel’s bombings killed an estimated 900 civilians and dozens of top IRGC commanders. The IRGC is considered Iran’s deep state. Washington has designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Israel framed the strike as preemption: “better to strike before being struck.” For older Iranians, it felt like déjà vu. Warplanes in the sky, rubble in the streets and funerals that stretch for days. It reminded them of when Iraq launched an eight-year-long war against them from 1980 to 1988, in which Iraqi airplanes bombed Iranian cities. The international community condemned the civilian toll. But condemnation, as always, is not the same as action. Washington offered muted support to Israel, insisting Iran must be deterred. Moscow and Beijing condemned Israel loudly, using the moment to strengthen ties with Tehran. Israel sees Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. Iran sees Israeli attacks as proof that it needs deterrence. It’s a vicious circle where every “defensive” move sets the stage for the next escalation. Sources: Reactions to the Iran–Israel war | Wikipedia UN arms embargo, other sanctions reimposed on Iran over nuclear programme | Reuters So, what do ordinary Iranians think?
Look at Iranian social media, and you’ll see something surprising: resignation. The sanctions are not shocking. They are background noise. Iran has been under sanctions since 1979. Most of the people in the country have grown up under sanctions. An Iranian friend of mine who is studying project management told me that he feels bad for the people, but it is “nothing new.”
Radio Farda, an outlet opposed to the Iranian government, ran an article titled, “UN sanctions list against Iran published without update; EU sanctions also returned.” The outlet wrote that there are individuals on the list who are no longer alive. Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful leaders with a global reputation who was killed in a US drone strike in 2020 in Baghdad, is still on the list. The pro-regime Mehr News reported on the sanctions with an interesting title, “Canada supports UN sanctions on Iran.” The Saudi-owned Sharq Al-Awsat paper took a somewhat neutral stance on the issue. Sources: UN sanctions list against Iran published without update; EU sanctions also returned | Radio Farda حمایت کانادا از اعمال مجدد تحریمهای سازمان ملل علیه ایران – خبرگزاری مهر The snapback statements were not welcomed warmly on local, regional and global media as they once were. In fact, comparing it to the past decade of news on sanctions, the recent ones did not gather any significant attention. Sanctions hit medicine supplies. They hit food prices. They hollow out the middle class. Yet paradoxically, they often enrich the Revolutionary Guard, which controls smuggling networks and thrives in chaos. The irony is that the harder the outside world squeezes, the more resilient the regime becomes. America’s calculus: the long game
Washington has no appetite for boots on the ground. Instead, it plays a long game. Squeeze Iran economically. Limit its regional reach. Contain, deter and outlast. Officials call it strategic patience. Critics call it slow-motion collective punishment. Here’s the metaphor often used in Washington: Iran is a pressure cooker. Sanctions raise the heat, hoping one day the lid will blow off. But history shows something else — pressure often forges steel. The Iranian regime has become adept at turning adversity into propaganda. Every sanction is portrayed as proof of Western hostility, every strike as a justification for repression. And let’s not forget the global audience. China is watching closely. For Beijing, Iran is a case study in how the US uses sanctions as a geopolitical weapon. In that sense, the sanctions are not just about Tehran. They are a message across the Pacific. Source: UN sanctions against Iran to resume over banned nuclear activity What’s next?
The rial will continue to collapse: Over the past five years, the Iranian rial has lost most of its value versus the US dollar and a similar order of magnitude of depreciation versus the euro. Inflation will eat through savings. The educated youth, engineers, doctors and students will leave if they can, fueling another wave of brain drain. Iran’s future may be written not in Tehran, but in Toronto, Berlin and Los Angeles, where exiles build new lives. Source: ‘Snapback’: What sanctions will be reimposed on Iran? | Al-Monitor ‘Maximum Pressure’: Iran’s Rial Hits Record Low Due to U.S. Sanctions Politically, the regime will tighten control. Dissent will be painted as treason. Yet, underground, in whispers, in encrypted chats, people still dream of change. The very tools meant to weaken Iran’s government — sanctions, isolation and strikes — often strengthen it. But they also create cracks in legitimacy and confidence. Cracks that, one day, could widen into something bigger. In time, those cracks may become fault lines. Closing thoughts
Iran is the only country in the Middle East with the capability to strike Israel because of its massive missile arsenal. Yet Iran prefers the longer game: defeating Israel by spreading anti-Israeli narratives. Supporting groups that subscribed to Velayeti Faqeh, Iran’s political vision for the region and the world and intelligence operations. Tehran has shown pragmatism before. It helped the US Army in Afghanistan in 2001. In the 1980s, it even bought weapons from Israel. Direct attacks on Israel remain unlikely. Such a move would trigger the full might of the US military and could spark an internal uprising, threatening the regime’s survival. Source: Iran and the Future of Afghanistan | Council on Foreign Relations Iran’s proxies once gave it influence over four major capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sanaa. Today, only the Houthis remain strong. Hezbollah has become more cautious since Israel killed its Persian-speaking, pro-Iranian leader Hassan Nasrullah, who led Hezbollah for most of its existence. Iraqi militias, once dependent on Iran for money and weapons, are now richer than Iran and hold power inside Iraq’s government. What binds them to Tehran is ideology alone. Tehran’s strategy leans too heavily on ideology. It has neglected the financial and economic dimension. That neglect left it vulnerable to US pressure. Washington has devalued Iran’s currency to the point of worthlessness. This raises a hard question for Iran. Can an ideology that cannot feed its own people survive? Is Iran on the same path as the Soviet Union once was? Wanna dive deeper? UN sanctions against Iran to resume over banned nuclear activity | BBC UN arms embargo, other sanctions reimposed on Iran over nuclear programme | Reuters The War before the sanctions Israel strikes Iran. What happens next? | Brookings What Israel’s attack on Iran means for the future of war | Al Jazeera US strike on Iran U.S. strikes 3 nuclear sites in Iran, in major regional conflict escalation – NPR The global implications of the US strikes on Iran | Brookings U.S., Israel Attack Iranian Nuclear Targets—Assessing the Damage | Council on Foreign Relations Wishing you a thoughtful week, Farhang, Casey, Nick and Roberta Assistant Editors and Communications & Outreach |
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