Greetings from the team, Roberta in Geneva, Aaditya in Mumbai, Casey in the San Francisco Bay Area and Nick in Washington, DC, coming together to make sense of a fast-moving story from the Himalayas.

Did Nepal explode last week?

Nepal’s elected communist government triggered a political firestorm on September 4 by ordering telecoms to block 26 major social-media platforms — including Facebook, Instagram, X and YouTube — for failing to register locally under new rules. Officials said the policy was about accountability and curbing misuse, while opponents saw it as an attack on speech.

Source: Nepal to block some social media including Facebook

Kathmandu, Nepal, via Shutterstock

Youth-led crowds, widely dubbed as Gen-Z movement, poured into the streets. Clashes, arson at state buildings and attempts to storm parliament followed. Authorities put the initial death toll at 19. In reality, a lot more died, and hundreds were injured. Under pressure, the government lifted the ban — but protests escalated, culminating in the prime minister’s resignation on September 9. By the end of the week, the nationwide death toll estimates rose above 50, and the injuries rose to over a thousand.

(Note: Nepal was a monarchy with the same dynasty from 1768 to 2008. Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli was the prime minister until this week. This Nepalese Brahmin is the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) and was prime minister thrice: 2015 to 2016, 2018 to 2021, and 2024 to 2025. Now, he is gone.)

Source: Nineteen killed in Nepal in ‘Gen Z’ protest over social media ban, corruption | Reuters

Amid continuing unrest, President Ramchandra Paudel named former chief justice Sushila Karki as interim prime minister — Nepal’s first woman to hold the post. Authorities dissolved parliament and scheduled new elections for March 5, 2026.

Source: Former chief justice Karki named Nepal’s first female PM after violent unrest | Reuters

Nepal, Sep 9, 2025, via Shutterstock

How did Nepal get here? Some hypotheses

A. The immediate spark met a long fuse

The government’s ban on social media hit precisely where Nepal’s organizing energy lived: Discord groups, Instagram stories and livestreams documenting alleged elite impunity. When police responded forcefully, the government lost legitimacy quickly. Protest leaders then pushed a non-party “clean hands” figure — Karki — as a transitional choice.

Source: Nepal’s gen Z protesters are continuing the fight for their future even after picking a new prime minister – ABC News

B. A decade of disillusionment
Since the 2006 peace deal and the end of the monarchy, Nepal has cycled through fragile coalitions, corruption allegations and youth job scarcity. The social media registration order was framed as governance reform, but it landed on top of accumulated grievances about inequality and cronyism. Nepal’s younger generations are frustrated and angry when they see the elite’s privilege flaunted online, and they link it to government corruption.

Source: Why GenZ has taken over the streets in Nepal – BBC

C. The army as restorer of order, not kingmaker

Troops patrolled Kathmandu as curfews fell. Despite social speculation about “royalist leanings,” reputable reporting focuses on the army’s role in stabilizing streets and facilitating a political reset — including consultations over an interim head. That reset ended with Karki’s appointment via negotiations among the president, protest leaders and the military.

Source: Nepal’s young protesters back former chief justice as interim head | Reuters

Why didn’t the platforms “register on time”?

Nepalese officials say platforms were told to register and designate accountable local liaisons. Yet several large networks did not meet the deadline, triggering a government ban. Critics argue that the timeline and terms were opaque, and that enforcement during peak protests suggested a political intent to disrupt mobilization more than a narrow regulatory fix. 

(Note: Nepal later revoked the blocks under pressure, while unrest continued.)

Nepal’s Prime Minister Oli Resigns After Deadly Protests, What Next? FO° Talks By Kuber Chalise, Rohan Khattar Singh | 10 September 2025

What could happen next, near-term scenarios?

a) Procedural stabilization under Karki

If the caretaker cabinet secures cross-party buy-in and enacts limited reforms (e.g., credible inquiries into protest deaths, a clear media/tech code and youth-jobs measures), protests may ebb and the March 2026 vote could proceed. The interim government’s early steps included easing restrictions and reopening services.

Source: Nepal sets March 5 vote, restrictions eased as interim gov’t takes charge | Elections News | Al Jazeera

b) Contest over constitutional form

Karki’s appointment is popular on the street, but jurists flag ambiguities: Nepal’s constitution has weak precedent for retired chief justices running the executive. A backlash from entrenched parties or legal challenges could complicate governance.

Source: Former Chief of Justice Appointed Nepal Prime Minister in Bid to End Turmoil – Financial Times

c) Regional calibration

India publicly welcomed the interim government and early elections, signaling a preference for calm on its northern frontier. Expect Delhi (and Beijing) to engage quietly on border trade, hydropower and transit, while watching for any tilt in Kathmandu’s external posture.

Source: ‘Welcome new interim govt’: India hails Nepal as fellow democracy; vows to work closely with Kathmandu | India News – The Times of India

Is this an externally pushed “regime-change” moment? (balanced view)

The claim: Commentators across South Asia argue a “toolkit” now cycles from Sri Lanka (2022) to Bangladesh (2024) to Nepal (2025): a youth bulge, social media exposing “nepo-kids” flaunting wealth abroad, high food prices and joblessness — all catalyzed by a flash-point (fuel shocks, quota crises or, here, a social-media ban). Some Indian officials and TV panels frame this as a covert playbook abetted by foreign actors.

Sources:

Thousands march in Bangladesh to mark student-led uprising that ousted PM Hasina | Reuters

Nepal protests keep a South Asian youthquake in motion – The Globe and Mail

Sri Lanka’s precedent: On July 9, 2022, protesters famously stormed the presidential residence in Colombo; the spectacle became a touchstone for regional protests.

Source: Protesters storm Sri Lanka presidential residence – BBC News – YouTube

Bangladesh’s template: In 2024, student-led protests over the quota system (30% of government jobs were reserved for children of independence war veterans, favoring the ruling party) and wider repression culminated in then prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s flight and an interim government that still rules to this day. Protests in Bangladesh were bloody, with fatality estimates ranging from over 1,000 to about 1,500, and the breaching of both Hasina’s home and her family home echoing Sri Lanka.

(Note: Sheikh Hasina is the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founder of Bangladesh, and her party, the Awami League, led Bangladesh’s movement for independence against Pakistan, which Bangladeshis achieved in 1971.)

Source: What’s behind Bangladesh’s protest against PM Sheikh Hasina? | Reuters

Nepal 2025: The pattern looks familiar (youth + digital media + anti-corruption), but credible reporting centers domestic grievances and the social media crackdown as proximate triggers. Speculations persist about direct foreign orchestration, though.

Sources:

Nepal’s gen Z protesters are continuing the fight for their future even after picking a new prime minister – ABC News

Nepal Gen Z protests: Is this the Asian Spring? Are there parallels with the Arab Spring? – India Today

Notes on the contested narrative

Nepal’s military is often called a “royalist army,” and it is true that its institutional lineage predates the republic. So far, the military has not been monarchist, though. A retired woman judge has taken over, and not any member of Nepal’s ousted royal family.

Why Nepal matters and FO°’s lens

Nepal’s week underscores a broader question for democracies under strain: Can states respond to demands of accountability on digital media without reflexive clampdowns that backfire? Whether you view Kathmandu as a local reckoning or a node in a regional “script,” the through-line is the legitimacy of governance — especially for the young. Democracies worldwide, including France, the UK and the US, are struggling with legitimacy. Suspicion of politicians and ruling elites has led to populism, outrage and protests.

In this febrile environment, FO° makes sense of multiple, even clashing perspectives, and by following facts and reason. We distill signals from noise, look under the surface and around the corner. In a confusing world, we use multiple lenses to make sense of the world.

Rest assured, we will keep observing Nepal’s path to March 2026 and the paths of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, too.

Further reading/sources

• Financial Times (UK): Sushila Karki’s appointment and constitutional concerns 
• ABC (Australia): Inside the Gen-Z organizing and digital coordination
• Al Jazeera (Qatar): Election date, easing of restrictions under the interim government
• BBC (UK): Palace storming Sri Lankan presidential palace in 2022
• Reuters (UK): Coverage of fatalities and the storming of the Bangladeshi prime ministerial residence in 2024
• The Times of India (India): Indian government vowing to work closely with Nepal