The 21st century’s most overlooked security crisis is unfolding beneath the waves. The Stephenson Ocean Security (SOS) Project, a forward-looking initiative by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, seeks to illuminate the increasingly tangled intersection of marine resource competition, geopolitical rivalry, ecological collapse and criminal activity. In doing so, it brings a necessary interdisciplinary lens to what might otherwise appear as discrete problems ranging from illegal fishing to human trafficking, and reframes them as systemic threats to global security, sustainable development and national sovereignty.

Sushi as a symbol: from culinary art to geostrategic indicator

Once the preserve of coastal Japan, sushi is now a globalized delicacy, found on the high streets of London, the suburbs of California and the metropoles of the Gulf. Yet behind the polished surface of a tuna sashimi lies a complex geopolitical and ecological story. The rise of sushi as a global culinary commodity has intensified demand for high-value species like bluefin tuna. To meet this demand fishers overexploit their fish stocks. As more than 90% of global fisheries are now fished at or beyond their sustainable limits, the global appetite for sushi has become a microcosm of the wider collapse of oceanic governance.

This shift is not merely ecological or cultural — it is profoundly economic and strategic. The supply chains supporting the sushi economy, from Japanese longliners to Southeast Asian transshipment hubs, have become entangled with illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, often backed by criminal syndicates and state-affiliated actors. In some regions, sushi-grade tuna is more than simply food; it is a currency of influence, smuggled alongside drugs and weapons, laundered into legitimate markets and even deployed as an instrument of soft power by major states, most notably China.

China’s maritime ambitions: from seafood to sovereignty

Nowhere is the intersection of fisheries, food security and geopolitical rivalry more evident than in the Indo-Pacific. The South China Sea is home to some of the world’s richest marine biodiversity, and its most contested waters. China’s use of state-subsidized distant water fishing fleets, often operating under opaque flags of convenience, serves dual purposes: economic extraction and territorial signaling. Fishing vessels, frequently protected or even accompanied by Chinese maritime militia or coast guard ships, have been instrumental in asserting Beijing’s expansive maritime claims, often at the expense of regional neighbors such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia.

These fleets not only strain fish stocks through overfishing and IUU operations but also increase the risk of naval skirmishes and regional destabilization. In this regard, fish become a vector of confrontation, used to test maritime boundaries and force diplomatic concessions.

In many small island developing states, fish plays a central role in diets, often serving as the primary source of animal protein. This reliance is especially pronounced in nations such as the Maldives, Kiribati, Sierra Leone and Cambodia, where local food security is closely tied to sustainable marine resources. As competition intensifies and ocean temperatures rise due to climate change, migration of species northward could leave tropical developing nations nutritionally and economically stranded. This could sow the seeds for social unrest, political destabilization and ultimately, failed states.

The “blue shadow economy:” crime, climate and convergence

As the ocean becomes increasingly lawless, criminal actors exploit the governance vacuum. The “blue shadow economy” encompasses a spectrum of interconnected illicit activities: IUU fishing, drug trafficking, arms smuggling and labor exploitation, often facilitated by the very same fleets. The convergence of these crimes often hides in plain sight. The very vessels that export yellowtail for Tokyo sushi counters may also traffic methamphetamines to Southeast Asia or harbor enslaved crew members on board.

The SOS Project rightly identifies that climate change accelerates these vulnerabilities. Warming waters drive fish stocks to migrate unpredictably, which shifts economic incentives for both legal and illegal actors. As fish become harder to catch and more valuable, criminal cartels treat them like extractive commodities, similar to conflict diamonds or rare earth metals — high value, low transparency, easy to exploit.

In many cases, criminal fishing operations are backed or tolerated by state actors who benefit from economic rents and geopolitical leverage. This dual use of fishing as a livelihood and a lever of influence makes maritime security increasingly inseparable from domestic governance and international diplomacy.

Resilience through governance: the case for a global ocean framework

The challenge, then, is about more than detecting and deterring criminal fishing or protecting marine ecosystems. It is fundamentally about reconceptualizing ocean governance as an integrated pillar of international security, akin to nuclear non-proliferation or counterterrorism. The SOS Project proposes just that: a fusion of environmental conservation, sustainable development and geostrategic stability.

This vision includes:

• New regional maritime coalitions: Coalitions like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations maritime partnerships can be instrumental in coordinating patrols, data sharing and enforcement actions across the Indo-Pacific.

• Technological innovation: Satellites, AI-driven vessel detection and blockchain-traceable supply chains are not mere novelties — they are essential tools in a world where a ship can change names, flags and cargo multiple times in a single voyage.

• Human rights enforcement: Modern slavery aboard fishing vessels remains a deeply underpoliced issue. Integrating labor inspections and seafarer protections into port state controls is a moral and security imperative; exploited labor forces are more easily co-opted by criminal networks.

• Food security diplomacy: The global North must invest in the food sovereignty of the global South through capacity building, shared governance and equitable trade. Sustainable fisheries are more than a development goal; they are the frontline of climate resilience and conflict prevention.

Alaska’s fisheries: A warning and a window

The crisis facing Alaska’s salmon fisheries serves as a poignant microcosm. Once a symbol of abundance and resilience, some fisheries in the region are now collapsing due to warming waters, invasive species and misaligned governance regimes. For Indigenous communities like those in Naknek, the disappearance of salmon is greater than an ecological loss — it’s a cultural trauma, a severing of kinship, sustenance and sovereignty.

The Indigenous-led response, rooted in co-governance, knowledge sovereignty and intergenerational stewardship, offers a powerful counternarrative to extractive models of marine use. These lessons must inform global governance. A just transition for ocean economies is impossible without the inclusion of those most dependent on and connected to the sea.

Heading toward a secure blue future

The crisis unfolding in our oceans is neither distant nor abstract. It is immediate, entangled with the core challenges of our century. From the quiet disappearance of sushi-grade tuna from the global market to the aggressive deployment of state-backed fishing fleets and the rise of maritime human trafficking, the seas have become both a contested frontier and a mirror reflecting the vulnerabilities of our global order.

The traditional separation between food security, environmental sustainability, geopolitical stability and labor rights is no longer tenable. These issues are fundamentally interconnected, and the maritime domain is where they converge most acutely. The health of the ocean is a strategic imperative that will define the resilience of nations and the legitimacy of the global system.

If we fail to respond, the consequences will extend far beyond vanishing fish stocks. We will face cascading instabilities: the displacement of coastal populations, intensified geopolitical friction over maritime boundaries and resources and rising volatility in global commodity markets. Ocean degradation is worse than a threat multiplier — it is a sovereignty disruptor.

Yet, with deliberate leadership, transnational cooperation and investment in ocean governance, the maritime realm can also become a foundation for regeneration and peacebuilding. A rules-based, ecologically anchored ocean order is a utopian necessity.

Security in the 21st century will not be measured solely by military deterrence or fortified borders. It will be shaped by our ability to protect, manage and equitably share the planet’s most essential and endangered commons: the ocean.

[Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.