BY:  Nathaniel Handy

Bottom Line: Erdoğan’s Reign Is Not Over

Erdoğan's political future uncertain with election nearing, amid widespread predictions of his downfall after almost two decades in power.

Erdoğan's AKP party has faced economic crises, corruption, and damaged foreign relations. Turkey struggles with refugee influx.

Turkey hit by earthquakes, exposing inadequate response. Erdoğan criticized for banning Twitter and arresting citizens for "provocative posts".

Erdoğan criticized for aloof response to earthquake devastation, citing fate. His connection to religious base key to his success.

Erdoğan's grip on power deemed fragile after earthquakes, but wider context, not just disaster response, will determine election outcome.

Erdoğan governs for his supporters, but this is due to an essentially majoritarian system, not just his personal inclination.

Western media criticize faith-based majoritarian politicians like Erdoğan but ignore the same tendencies in secular forces like Ataturk.

Secular or military ruled Turkey until AKP's rise. AKP's electoral success led to power struggles within conservative establishment.