Bottom Line: Erdoğan’s Reign Is Not Over

BY: Nathaniel Handy

Erdoğan's political future uncertain with election nearing, amid widespread predictions of his downfall after almost two decades in power.

[{"selector":"#anim-4ca7f4e8-dad2-4b47-8952-ee6b1ea99422","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2a0835c7-631b-4c19-905a-b769ae3f7457","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 119.01903%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-93af14b8-8ff1-400d-b6e2-2bd8b7f192f4 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(-0.05790661912953838%, -2.282873252070069%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}]

Erdoğan's AKP party has faced economic crises, corruption, and damaged foreign relations. Turkey struggles with refugee influx.

[{"selector":"#anim-08f855d4-47c1-4a69-a862-afa2ce53d9cd [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0%, -1.8262985464927648%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-04f6a082-ce26-4933-b9bb-97f02a471163","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-09d50937-1ff6-4ad5-94ea-f5813cc8471a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 119.01903%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Turkey hit by earthquakes, exposing inadequate response. Erdoğan criticized for banning Twitter and arresting citizens for "provocative posts".

[{"selector":"#anim-6ce1fefd-b9a1-42c2-8112-8cc9d1bde503 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0.34743971477721736%, -1.5219154094412306%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5fe1e132-eef3-4217-829d-589e396016d6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7cc439d0-d4d1-4b01-9660-44f913f292bc","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 117.21999%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Erdoğan criticized for aloof response to earthquake devastation, citing fate. His connection to religious base key to his success.

[{"selector":"#anim-48167e0c-08d2-492f-a3e4-423e8ac6e558 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0%, -1.8262985464927648%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-520e23c1-9b4b-4b93-874a-2cee227cdc64","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-076296da-247f-45d6-af1e-da286db4b446","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 119.01903%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Erdoğan's grip on power deemed fragile after earthquakes, but wider context, not just disaster response, will determine election outcome.

[{"selector":"#anim-7ae386c4-3b60-4f1b-97c7-f1a3f9fefd63 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0.11581323825907482%, -2.1306816835442994%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8c258fbf-a701-4e2e-b4b0-bc6937aa0d65","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-63154bda-3981-4958-b2e1-db357f782991","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 119.01903%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Erdoğan governs for his supporters, but this is due to an essentially majoritarian system, not just his personal inclination.

[{"selector":"#anim-85ae068a-e6c4-4e9f-8aed-88ba4fe674d2 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0%, -1.8262985464927648%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ee2791f9-1d46-412e-b5d8-f69f7599faf8","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-01edcc21-a449-4d71-b8b7-81b89dc191a7","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 119.01903%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Western media criticize faith-based majoritarian politicians like Erdoğan but ignore the same tendencies in secular forces like Ataturk.

[{"selector":"#anim-ec9397dc-480a-43af-b75a-2a6b2edb0187 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0%, -1.6741069779669953%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c141151a-4fad-45d1-a7e2-2edc39d06678","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-91c76bba-6f1f-4fbf-b8cc-578063535b21","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 119.01903%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Secular or military ruled Turkey until AKP's rise. AKP's electoral success led to power struggles within conservative establishment.

[{"selector":"#anim-2349dfbb-d4f9-474e-bf67-94b64c8a7806 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(1.042319144331659%, -1.978490115018535%) scale(0.9090909090909091)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bafeac1b-c842-4455-8ae8-42b9322d1613","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-afd74093-a2aa-4351-86ef-7a88057527cf","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 119.01903%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

CLICK HERE TO READ

[{"selector":"#anim-5e7692b5-fe14-486c-8477-b76a21cb0a04","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(1)","scale(1.5)","scale(0.95)","scale(1)"],"offset":[0,0.33,0.66,1]},"delay":0,"duration":1000,"easing":"ease-in-out","fill":"both","iterations":1}]